Industrial production broadly appears to have 0% growth since March and to be treading water.

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But, the general direction is better than it looks from that view. Since the 4th quarter of 2022 was so bad, if we continue this trajectory, the annual growth will start to show up.

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What’s not quite as inspiring is that the growth is mostly about mining and extraction. Utilities come in second. And, manufacturing is trailing. The good news is that general manufacturing is suffering from the same lull in the 4th quarter of 2022 that we’ve been discussing. The general trend looks good and we should see better annual growth numbers the remainder of 2023. Mining and extraction dis not have a down turn in Q42022. They’ve been ramping up ever since the covid lows in the spring of 2020 taking advantage of the persistent inflation.

Industry Groups

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Manufacturing

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Mining and Extraction

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Looking at the capacity utilization for different stages of production, it is not a surprise that the crude stage of production is at the highest level of capacity utilization since the ramp up 1974 in response to gas lines. Capacity utilization for the primary and finishing stages of manufacturing has been falling. The decrease has not been dramatic and both series do appear to be finding a floor.

Capacity Utilization: Crude stage-of-process

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Capacity Utilization: Primary and Finishing stage-of-process

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