Macro Briefing - Thursday, March 13

US consumer inflation eased more than expected in February. The Consumer Price Index ticked lower, rising 2.8% last month vs. the year-ago level. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy for a clearer measure of the trend, edged down to 3.1%. Although the softer pace is welcome news after months of signs of “sticky” inflation, the February data “does not incorporate what is to come and what already has happened for tariffs,” said Kevin Gordon, senor investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “The vagaries and uncertainties associated with policy are still a much stronger force in the market than anything CPI-related or in terms of one data point.”


Shutdown risk for US government rises after Democrats say there aren’t enough votes in the Senate to advance the short-term funding bill that passed the House on Tuesday. As a result, the odds have increased for a government shutdown starting on Saturday.

Trump is set to nominate Federal Reserve board member Michelle Bowman to the central bank’s top job of overseeing banks. Bowman will face a challenging environment in loosening some restrictions on the largest banks because the majority of the current Fed board was appointed by President Joe Biden.

Top corporate leaders have reduced expectations for the US economic outlook, according to a new survey. The Business Roundtable’s economic outlook index fell 7 points from its December release and is roughly at the same level it was in the first half of last year, which is in line with its historical average, implying steady overall growth ahead. The poll was conducted between Feb. 19 and Mar. 7 for 150 CEO’s of major US companies.


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