US housing starts rebound in June after dropping to 5-year low, but the downside bias in recent years remains intact. “Everywhere builders look there are reasons to delay or scrap projects,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “The nation’s housing market outlook has never looked this troublesome. This could actually end quite badly for the economy.”

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned that the August 1 deadline for a baseline 30% tariff is non-negotiable. “That’s a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in,” he said on Sunday when asked about the deadline for EU tariffs.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates next week’s US Q2 GDP report will report a solid recovery in output. Friday’s revised estimate indicates a 2.4% increasing in GDP for the annualized change, anticipating a rebound from Q1’s 0.5% decline.

The US economy is more vulnerable than it appears, writes a columnist at Financial Times: “Jobs, consumers and stock values are at an ominous inflection point.”

Consumer sentiment was little changed from June, inching up about one index point to 61.8, according to the University of Michagan’s poll. “While sentiment reached its highest value in five months, it remains a substantial 16% below December 2024 and is well below its historical average,” said the surveys of consumers director.

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