Macro Briefing - Friday, Oct. 3
Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020. “Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm.
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The federal government shutdown, now in its second day with no immediate end in sight, will delay a key monthly jobs report due today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — non-farm payrolls. Until Congress approves funding, the bureau’s more than 2,000 employees will remain furloughed.
Senior officials in the Trump administration acknowledge that the federal government shutdown, with no immediate end in sigh, could hurt the US economy. “We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working America,” said Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
The Energy Department’s cancelled more than 300 funding awards on efforts to reduce carbon emissions, air and water pollution, and strengthen electrical grids. The cancellations of nearly $8 billion in funding were announced on Wednesday, the first day of a federal government shutdown.
BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners is in talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers, a technology infrastructure company, at $40 billion. The deal is one of the year’s biggest and marks a major bet on artificial technology-related business activity.
Alternative inflation indexes suggest upward pricing pressure will continue in the near term, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. The TMC Core Inflation Index, based on several alternative benchmarks published by two regional Fed banks, accelerated for a fourth straight month in August, rising 3.3% in year-over-year terms, the highest since in more than a year and faster than the reading of the core Consumer Price Index.
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