US fourth-quarter GDP increased less than expected. Output rose 2.3% (annualized), marking a slowdown from Q3’s 3.1%. Consumer spending accelerated in Q4, rising 4.2%, the fastest pace in nearly two years. “Holding back growth was a decline in business investment, flat reading in net exports, and sharp decline in inventories,” advises Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. “The drawdown in inventories, especially at the wholesale level indicates that retailers also scurried to stock up before possible tariffs. This could continue into early 2025.”

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Initial jobless claims in the US fell more than expected last week. New filings for unemployment benefits totaled 207,000, a low level by historical standards and a sign that the labor market’s outlook remains positive for the near term.

Pending home sales in December fell sharply as mortgage rates rise over 7%. Signed contracts for purchases of existing homes fell 5.5% last month vs. November and are 5% below the year-ago level.

Trump says he’ll impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting Feb. 1, but oil imports will be excluded. “Oil is going to have nothing to do with it as far as I’m concerned,” he told reporters on Thursday. “We’re going to make that determination probably tonight on oil. Because they send us oil, we’ll see – it depends on what their price is.”

Gold rises to record high. “You have the uncertainty of what’s going to happen with Trump, with his policies and tariffs and things like that could impact the growth of the United States,” says Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. “When you get rising inflation and you get declining growth, you get stagflation, then gold is one of the best-performing commodities in that environment.”

US 10-year Treasury yield continues to retreat, falling to 4.52% on Thursday — lowest in more than a month:

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