Looking Ahead In Biotech: ARIA, DVAX, OGXI

Biotechnology companies release data on pipeline drug studies to update analysts and investors on the progress of a drug. Positive data releases have the power to send stocks soaring as they indicate the drug is one step closer to FDA approval. Y Katherine Xu of William Blair offers insight into a handful of biotechnology companies scheduled to release data updates including Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARIA), Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:DVAX), and OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:OGXI). Xu has a 63% overall success rate recommending stocks with a +18.6% average return per rating.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc.:

Analyst expects top-line data from the ALTA study of brigatinib; a pipeline drug therapy for lung cancer. The drug has already received Breakthrough Therapy designation by the FDA. Xu believes there is a 85% chance that the study will be successful and believes it will have a mid-sized impact on the stock. Xu is optimistic because "ALTA is a single-arm study with [overall response rate] as the primary endpoint, [therefore] the chance of success and approval is very high based on the available data to date." The analyst expects these results to have a "modest impact" on Ariad shares.

There are currently three competing drugs on the market, but Xu believes "brigatinib has so far produced the highest overall response rate." Furthermore, "Brigatinib also posted the highest progression-free survival (PFS) of 13.4 months" versus the competing drugs survival rates of 5.7 months and 6.3 months. If brigatinib is ultimately approved, Xu estimates peak sales of the drug will reach $280 million. Xu notes the company is "seeking a partner to codevelop and commercialize brigatinib," which will in turn dilute the profit derived from the drug. The analyst concluded, "Ariad has a cash runway that could sustain operations into 2018, when we expect Ariad to potentially become profitable."

1 2 3
View single page >> |

Disclosure: To see more visit  more

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Craig Newman 6 years ago Member's comment

You left out a rocket sitting on the launch pad, ready for blast Off $ABIO. Bullish