Lessons From Carolina: Paying People To Not Work Is Losing Policy, Tax Cuts And Reforms Do Work
In 2013, North Carolina figured out paying people to not work is a losing policy.
N.C became the first state to reject “free” federal payments for extended unemployment benefits and reduce the weeks of benefits to 20 from 26. It also passed big tax cuts.
Huge Payoff
The result was phenomenal as reported by Stephen Moore, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation in the Wall Street Journal article: The Tax-Cut Payoff in Carolina.
Four years ago North Carolina’s unemployment rate was above 10% and the state still bore the effects of its battering in the recession. Many rural towns faced jobless rates of more than 20%. But in 2013 a combination of the biggest tax-rate reductions in the state’s history and a gutsy but controversial unemployment-insurance reform supercharged the state’s economy and has even helped finance budget surpluses.
The tax cut slashed the state’s top personal income-tax rate to 5.75%, near the regional average, from 7.75%, which had been the highest in the South. The corporate tax rate was cut to 5% from 6.9%. The estate tax was eliminated.
Next came the novel tough-love unemployment-insurance reforms. The state became the first in the nation to reject “free” federal payments for extended unemployment benefits and reduce the weeks of benefits to 20 from 26. The maximum weekly dollar amount of payments, $535, which had been among the highest in the nation, was trimmed to a maximum of $350 a week. As a result, tens of thousands of Carolinians left the unemployment rolls.
While these measures were passing the legislature, the state capital boiled over with rancorous political rallies, called Moral Mondays, designed to block the “cruel” GOP agenda. Rev. William Barber II, one of the protest organizers, lambasted Republicans for making the Tar Heel State a “crucible of extremism and injustice.” The national media piled on with claims that the Republican agenda cut taxes for the rich while slashing benefits for the poor.
Then a funny thing happened. After a few months, the unemployment rate started to decline rapidly and job growth climbed. Not just a little. Nearly 200,000 jobs have been added since 2013 and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.5% from 7.9%.
On the Tax Foundation index of business conditions, North Carolina has been catapulted to 16th from a dismal 44th since 2013.
The most recent news will make many other governors jealous. The state didn’t take the extra federal benefits—which require repayments later to the feds—and it cut the weekly benefits. So the state government has been able to pay back $2.8 billion in unemployment-insurance money owed to the feds, and it now has a trust-fund surplus. This means it will be able to provide employers with at least $500 million in cuts from the state and federal unemployment tax on payroll over 18 months.
This comes at a time when other states are having to raise payroll taxes to pay off the loans for the rich benefits they doled out in the recession and its aftermath. The lesson: Handouts from the feds are never free.
An even bigger surprise—even to supporters—is the tax cut’s impact on revenue. Even with lower rates, tax revenues are up about 6% this year according to the state budget office. On May 6, Gov. McCrory announced that the state has a budget surplus of $400 million while many other states are scrambling to fill gaps.
The story gets better. Because North Carolina built in a trigger mechanism that applies excess revenues to corporate-rate cuts, the business tax has fallen to 5% from 6.9%, and next year it drops to 4%.
Lesson for Illinois
Tax cuts, workers' comp reform, and other business-friendly measures are the way to growth.
Instead, Illinoisans suffer from high taxes, untenable pension promises, inane union work rules, and workers' comp rules that collectively drive businesses away.
Worker's Comp Reform Dies in Illinois Senate
Let's put a spotlight on the need for workers' comp reform and why it's important for businesses in Illinois.
On May 29 Workers' Comp Reform Defeated in Illinois Senate.
An amendment to SB 997 filed by Senate GOP Leader Christine Radogno would finally address Illinois’ causation standard under our worker’s compensation law. Currently, the workplace could be less than 1% the cause of a worker’s injury yet the employer is on the hook for all costs. Under Governor Rauner’s plan, the workplace would have to be the primary cause, or 50% at fault, for the employees’ injury.
The owner of a trucking firm located near the Indiana border testified that his work comp costs are $325,000 higher in Illinois than Indiana. The owner of a steel fabricator said he would save $106,000 in work comp costs if he moved to Indiana. A site selector, who works with businesses who want to either move or expand, said due to our work comp costs Illinois is always being cut from the short list of places to look at.
Despite these compelling arguments, Democrat members of the Judiciary committee vote against the bill mostly citing their concerns about the process and lack of vetting of the legislation.
Why Illinois Job Growth Lags
High taxes, demand for still more taxes, and inane work rules cause Illinois businesses to flee the state when they can.
Job growth lags precisely because Illinois is a poor state in which to conduct business.
The Illinois Policy Institute, Governor Rauner, and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) want to address these issues.
Unfortunately, all reforms die in the same place: an Illinois legislature controlled by House leader Mike Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton.
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Surely this should be put in the humor section, as the writer apparently cannot distinguish correlation from causation. Has the writer eliminated, or made any effort to determine, other possible causes for this remarkable turnaround in North Carolina? What might be the mechanism for this happy result? Getting those lazy bums off welfare? Is that what did it? Or was it that the lower tax rate on the upper class got them to increase their own pay and then hire more gardeners and domestic workers? Or id it motivate them to relocate their business to North Carolina? Who knows? Does it matter? Can all the States similarly benefit from a race to the bottom?
Obviously correlation and causation are related, but not always in clear ways.
Meanwhile, because this is simply correlation, it is of little use in Illinois, another failed State.
Or is the happy result just some short term increase in a measurable category, to be followed by a disastrous result later on? I always liken such half-baked analysis the happy short term result of firing your most expensive salesman and then not paying him his commission... It looks like a great decision, short term. Not so great, long term.
Richard
As a former resident of North Carolina and now living overseas, I welcome the positive news of this article. Perhaps to some people, looking from the outside of what was reported, it may appear "humorous", but "ya hadda be there" to appreciate the attempt to report some really positive changes in the state debt situation. Yes, there are some problems with the article in that many of the factors in the cause and effect are not taken into account, but we are talking about a newspaper article and not an economic treatise or a statistical analysis. What we have here is an attempt to report a few facts about a very positive turnaround in the state of NC, that was and is sorely needed. Are there any more possible causes for this remarkable turnaround? Surely. What is the mechanism for the happy result? Well, part of it is due to a change in viewpoint of how do you run your state government and spend its money. NC state government bit the bullet and made unpleasant and unpopular (at the time) changes for longer term benefits to its residents (I still have a house there, so I know). Does getting lazy bums off welfare (its actually about unemployment benefits) help? Absolutely. Just think. More people working and paying taxes....and less people mooching off of the state government for weekly social security unemployment benefits. Could that help state government coffers? Absolutely. Collecting unemployment payments was just too easy and made a lot of people dependent on those payments instead of really looking for a job. Just think. Less debt to the federal government and more money to be applied to real needs for residents of the state....like education. As a former educator, I saw budgets shrink year after year because of the debt situation. Just think. More money for employers to hire workers.....and the emphasis in NC is on skilled workers. NC has an excellent university system and provides tons of skilled workers for its economy. What about gardeners and domestic workers? You generally pay them out of pocket. It is an unofficial economy. So that won't show up in any statistics. How about business relocation to NC? It's been positive for the last 10 years at least...according to statistics, and it is trending upward, net gains of more than 1200 companies per year. Forbes listed the Raleigh, NC area as its number 1 place to relocate in the US in......2014. Can other states benefit from what NC did, using it as a model? Hard to say. Each state has its own set of problems. What about Illinois? Well, under Pat Quinn, Democrat, it was listed as one of the most UNfavorable business climates in the US...along with New York and California. Why was it so unfavorable? Can you say "high taxes and anti-business regulation that stifled economic growth"? Could Illinois use some of what NC has? Absolutely. Hope the new Republican governor of Illinois gets some help from his state legislature and turns things around. I like good news.
Mr. McGee
Yes, it appears that NC is now doing better than it was before. You point to various changes that were made as having caused the improvement. You might be right. Or you might be wrong. You take the later improvement to mean that the changes that were made were as proof that the changes were all for the good. You don't know that to be true.
It would seem obvious that paying people not to work is not a good idea, in most circumstances, as it is not obviously productive. (On the other hand, in the case of some family businesses, it is sometimes best to pay a family member to stay away rather than come to the office...)
The "Reforms" noted may have worked, and the "Tax Cuts" may have worked, but the reality is that you don't have any idea which, if any, of the reforms were effective and "caused" the improvement, and likewise you have no idea whether the "tax cuts" "caused" the improvement. The number of words you used in your reply cannot mask that lack of causation and your inability to describe any mechanism that would explain the pleasing result. For all you know the claimed improvements were simply the natural course of events or were caused by the personal decisions of certain business owners to take advantage of a relatively cheap work-force in the state.
Meanwhile, the idea that all States are different is faIr enough, and so is the idea that good schools and universities (and I would add infrastructure) are required for a prosperous State. That all sounds very nice, but someone has to pay for all that, and that money has to be collected by the State as taxes, whether in one form or another. Similarly, although things seem better in NC now, how is the outlook for the future?
Worse still, competition between States in tax cutting to attract businesses amounts to a race to the bottom, and it is not a viable long term strategy for all states. Businesses may relocate to the State with the lowest taxes, beggaring all other states, but it is a short term solution.
It is odd that you criticize California and New York in your post. Those are two of the most "successful" States in the country, in terms of businesses, and high profit and high growth businesses as well. California, the state where I do most of my business, has a superb university system, and its main problems are caused by growth, not some sad stagnation as is hinted at in the original post on North Carolina.
Richard