June 2018 Texas Manufacturing Survey Declines

Of the three Federal Reserve districts which have released their June manufacturing surveys - all were in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

This survey remains in positive territory with new orders improving and unfilled orders significantly improving - and both in positive territory. Even though this survey declined, our opinion is that this was a stronger report than last month.

The expectations from Nasdaq / Econoday was 22.0 to 33.6 (consensus 27.0), and the reported value was 23.3. From the Dallas Fed:

The expansion in Texas factory activity continued in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, declined 12 points to 23.3, signaling a deceleration in output growth.

Some other indexes of manufacturing activity also indicated slower growth in June. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes posted double-digit declines, falling to 21.7 and 25.5, respectively. However, demand improved further in June as the new orders index edged up to 29.6, its highest level this year.

Perceptions of broader business conditions were even more positive in June than in May. The general business activity index rose 10 points to 36.5, and the company outlook index rose five points to 33.2, its highest reading since 2006.

Labor market measures suggested robust growth in employment and longer work hours in June. The employment index stayed near last month's six-year high at 23.9. Thirty-one percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 7 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index remained highly positive but edged down to 20.2.

Price and wage pressures increased markedly in June. The raw materials prices index rose 10 points to 53.6, its highest reading since 2011. The finished goods prices index moved up to a 10-year high of 26.2. Compensation costs also accelerated, with the wages and benefits index rising seven points to 31.4.

Expectations regarding future business conditions remained largely optimistic in June. The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook moved up to 35.9 and 38.7, respectively, with both readings significantly above average. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained in solidly positive territory.

Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in Texas
Current (versus previous month)
Indicator Jun Index May Index Change Indicator Direction* Trend** (Months) % Reporting Increase % Reporting
No Change
% Reporting Decrease

Production

23.3

35.2

-11.9

Increasing

24

38.4

46.6

15.1

Capacity Utilization

21.7

32.2

-10.5

Increasing

24

35.6

50.5

13.9

New Orders

29.6

27.7

+1.9

Increasing

20

44.0

41.5

14.4

Growth Rate of Orders

22.2

26.5

-4.3

Increasing

18

35.2

51.8

13.0

Unfilled Orders

13.0

4.1

+8.9

Increasing

15

25.5

62.0

12.5

Shipments

25.5

39.5

-14.0

Increasing

19

41.9

41.7

16.4

Delivery Time

15.9

10.2

+5.7

Increasing

12

23.4

69.1

7.5

Finished Goods Inventories

5.8

-6.6

+12.4

Increasing

1

22.1

61.5

16.3

Prices Paid for Raw Materials

53.6

44.0

+9.6

Increasing

28

54.1

45.4

0.5

Prices Received for Finished Goods

26.2

20.5

+5.7

Increasing

23

28.0

70.2

1.8

Wages and Benefits

31.4

24.3

+7.1

Increasing

107

32.5

66.4

1.1

Employment

23.9

23.4

+0.5

Increasing

18

30.9

62.1

7.0

Hours Worked

20.2

23.2

-3.0

Increasing

20

31.5

57.2

11.3

Capital Expenditures

23.8

21.7

+2.1

Increasing

22

29.5

64.8

5.7

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

(Click on image to enlarge)

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

(Click on image to enlarge)

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Disclosure: None.

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