Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report.

Initial Thoughts

• The divergence between jobs and employment continues for nearly a full year but has decreased in 2023.
• Because of annual benchmark revisions, the way the BLS reports revisions, and the relatively small sample sizes of monthly jobs reports, we cannot, with strong confidence, suggest these reports portray an accurate picture of either jobs or employment.

Payrolls vs Employment Since May 2022

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +3,631,000
• Employment Level: +2,732,000
• Full Time Employment: +1,757,000

Of the 894,000 rise in employment in January, 810,000 was due to annual benchmark revisions. And the BLS does not say what months were revised, just poof, here you go.

Household Survey Revision Synopsis

"In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2022 and earlier months. Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time."

In essence, the BLS admits all of its job reports are full of errors and it leaves the errors in place as discussed as per its stated methodology.

No matter how you slice the revisions, full time employment has been very weak.

With BLS admitted errors out of the way, let's discuss the current data.

Job Report Details

• Nonfarm Payroll: +253,000 to 155,673 - Establishment Survey
• Civilian Non-institutional Population: +171,000 to 266,443,000
• Civilian Labor Force: -43,000 to 166,688,000 - Household Survey
• Participation Rate: +0.0 to 62.6% - Household Survey
• Employment: +139,000 to 161,031,000- Household Survey
• Unemployment: -182,000 to 5,657,000- Household Survey
• Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 3.4% - Household Survey
• Not in Labor Force: +214,000 to 99,755,000 - Household Survey
• U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 6.6% - Household Survey

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Details

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• Leisure and Hospitality: +31,000 after rising 72,000 in March
• Education and Health Service: +77,000
• Government: +23,000
• Manufacturing has peaked this cycle and has mostly been flat all year. In April, manufacturing was up 11,000.
• Construction: +15,000 after falling 9,000 in March
• Retail Trade: was +8,000 after falling 15,000 in March

Monthly Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 78,000, from +326,000 to +248,000, and the change for March was revised down by 71,000, from +236,000 to +165,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 149,000 lower than previously reported. 

Part-Time Jobs

• Involuntary Part-Time Work: -199,000 to 3,903,000
• Voluntary Part-Time Work: +363,000 to 21,796,000
• Total Full-Time Work: +161,000 to 134,500,000
• Total Part-Time Work: -84,000 to 26,663,000

The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.

Hours and Wages

This data is frequently revised. 

• Average weekly hours of all private employees was unchanged at 34.5 hours.
• Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees rose 0.1 hours to 33.4 hours.
• Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.1 hours to 40.2 hours.

An overall decline or rise of a tenth of an hour does not sound line much, but with employment at 160 million, it's more significant than it appears at first glance.

Hourly Earnings

This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.

Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.16 to $33.36. A year ago the average wage was $31.94. That's a gain of 4.4%.

Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.11 to $28.62. A year ago the average wage was $27.27. That's a gain of 5.0%.

Despite the gains, wages have not kept up with inflation.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in January of 3.4 percent. This month it's back to 3.4 percent.

The civilian non-institutional population is 266,443,000. Employment is 161,031,000. That means there are over 105 million people age 16 and older who are not working at all.

Alternative Measures of Unemployment

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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

The official unemployment rate is 3.4%.

U-6 is much higher at 6.6%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.

The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.

Birth Death Model

Starting in January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.

The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.

For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

The model is wrong at economic turning points and is also heavily revised and thus essentially useless.

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

• The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
• The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.

If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.

Looking for job openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.

These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.

Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Rise in Unemployment

Given hiring pressures and boomer retirements, Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Unemployment Rise

Unlike many others, I expect the unemployment rate will not rise much in this recession compared to the average recession impact. Employment due to baby boomer retirement is another matter.

Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years

In case you missed it, please see Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years

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