Quits data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Three Key Ideas

• Quits and hires are actual events (within the bounds of BLS accuracy).
• Hires and separations (layoffs and quits) are hard data, in contrast to openings that may not be real.
• Quits reflect the propensity to job hop looking for better offers but also retirement. Quits have fallen to pre-pandemic levels.

Openings Changed Little

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release “The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.”

Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake

Openings are down from a record 11.773 million to a still very elevated 8.756 million. 

However, many of these openings are stale or fishing expeditions where there is willingness to hire but only for the perfect person.

Demographics are also in play. Millions of boomer retirements are underway. Companies do need to fill jobs or part-time jobs when aging boomers start working fewer hours.

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The Labor Leverage Ratio (LLR) is the number of quits divided by the number of discharges, firings, and layoffs initiated by employers.

The BLS notes “the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.” The LLR is a refinement to the quits rate.

Quits and the Labor Leverage Ratio provide a much more compelling story than openings.

In February, the labor leverage ratio is very near pre-pandemic levels.

US Born Employment is Down By Over 1 Million Since 2020

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US and Foreign Born Employment Data from the BLS chart by Mish

On March 9, I noted US Born Employment is Down By Over 1 Million Since 2020

Change Since February 2020

• Employment Level: +2,298,000
• US Born Employment: -1,007,000
• Foreign Born Employment: +3,305,000

Foreign Born Definition

Those born outside the United States (or one of its outlying areas such as Puerto Rico or Guam), and neither parent was a U.S. citizen. The foreign born include legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents such as students and temporary workers, and illegal immigrants.

Jobs Up 275,000 with 52,000 More Government Jobs, Employment Down 184,000

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Data from the BLS, chart by Mish.

For more discussion of the February employment report, please see my detailed report Jobs with seven charts: Jobs Up 275,000 with 52,000 More Government Jobs, Employment Down 184,000

This Friday the BLS will report the March numbers.

In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million

Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million. Let’s go over the math to see how I arrived at that number.

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Population stats are from the BLS. Expected Employment Loss is a Mish calculation based on the Employment Population Ratio (the percentage of people working in each age group).

Boomer retirements and deaths are unlike anything this country has ever seen.

The demographic change is sure to impact views of recessions and job losses in recessions.

The Fed has been surprised by the strength of the labor market despite massive interest rate hiking. I was not surprised as I have been talking about these demographics for years.

For more details and discussion of the most significant labor change in decades, please see In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million

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