Job Openings, Hires, Separations, Quits

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Waning Job Strength

Please consider the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary for February, released yesterday.

• The number of job openings decreased to 9.9 million on the last business day of February. 
• Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.2 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) edged up, while layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) decreased. 

Job Openings

• On the last business day of February, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 9.9 million (-632,000) and 6.0 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in professional and business services (-278,000); health care and social assistance (-150,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-145,000). 
• The number of job openings increased in construction (+129,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+38,000). 

Hires

• In February, the number and rate of hires changed little at 6.2 million and 4.0 percent, respectively. 
• Hires increased in federal government (+8,000). 

Separations

• In February, the number of total separations changed little at 5.8 million. The rate was little changed at 3.7 percent. 
• The number of total separations decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-45,000) but increased in educational services (+21,000).
• The number of quits edged up to 4.0 million (+146,000), and the rate was little changed at 2.6 percent. 
• Quits increased in professional and business services (+115,000); accommodation and food services (+93,000); wholesale trade (+31,000); and educational services (+18,000). 
• The number of quits decreased in finance and insurance (-39,000). 
• The number of layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.5 million (-215,000). The rate was little changed at 1.0 percent. Layoffs and discharges decreased in professional and business services (-157,000). 

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.

Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

Job Quits by Sector in Thousands

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Strength is in Leisure and Hospitality, just as one should expect. Jobs in the fast food industry are readily available and discontent over wages and benefits is high

Discontent may be high in retail trade, but where is the replacement job?

Construction, retail trade, and professional and business services have peaked.

Hires vs Nonfarm and Private Quits

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A broader chart of hires vs quits shows the clear trend break. Stepping back further let's discuss alleged openings.

Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake

The Wall Street Journal reports Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake

A mystery permeates the job market: You apply for a job and hear nothing, but the ad stays online for months. If you inquire, the company tells you it isn’t really hiring.

Not all job ads are attached to actual jobs, it turns out. T

Imaginary Jobs

In a 2022 report, sure to be much worse now, Clarify Capital warns Job Seekers Beware of Ghost Jobs 

Joe Mercurio, project manager at Clarify Capital believes... "Anyone looking to avoid applying for ‘ghost jobs’ should pay close attention to when they were first posted. Despite 96% of employers claiming they’re actively trying to fill an open role quickly, 40% of employers don’t expect to fill their active job posts for 2-3 months. In fact, 1 in 10 managers reports having job openings posted for over 6 months. This can happen for many different reasons, but checking to see when a job was posted could help prevent job seekers from applying for ‘ghost jobs. A job that was posted 48 hours ago is more likely to be actively hiring than a job that was posted 3 months ago.’”

Key Findings

• 68% of managers had job postings active for more than 30 days
• 1 in 10 managers has had a job posting open for over 6 months
• 1 in 5 managers don’t plan to fill open job positions until 2023
• 50% of managers keep job postings open because they’re “always open to new people”

Why Do Employers Post “Ghost Jobs”?

Missing Reason 

Because it's free stupid! There is no cost to posting ghost jobs. 

The benefits are obvious: Placate overworked employees, keep employees motivated,give impression of growth, and just in case.

Clarify noted a large number of jobs open for 6 months.

Expect companies to get smarter about this now that everyone knows the setup. Companies will take down an opening, reword it slightly, then repost it. 

The benefits outweigh the costs. Indeed, the only cost is the amount of time it takes to perpetuate the scam.

Unexpected Weakness in Many Places

While pondering an alleged 10 million openings, please note Unexpected Weakness in ISM Services, Backlog and New Orders Plunge

Also note Factory Orders Unexpectedly Much Weaker Than Expected With Big Negative Revisions

Finally, please note Real Income Was Negative in 2022 Q4, Big Negative Revisions to GDP.

That's OK because the Fed Seeks to "Minimize the Pain of the Journey"

So, nothing can possibly go wrong. 

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