Openings, Hires, Separations, and Quits from the BLS chart by Mish

Five Key Ideas

• Quits and hires are actual events (within the bounds of BLS accuracy).
• Hires and separations (layoffs and quits) are hard data, in contrast to openings that may not be real.
• Quits reflect the propensity to job hop looking for better offers but also retirement. Quits have fallen to pre-pandemic levels.
• Openings are down from a record 11.77 million to a still very elevated 8.86 million.
• Most analysts, me included, believe the number of fake openings rose during the pandemic. Hires and quits tell a much more compelling story.

Job Quits by Sector in Thousands

Job Quits from the BLS chart by Mish

Quits are back to normal or near normal across the board. Leisure and hospitality is a bit above pre-pandemic levels but is in the pre-pandemic range.

Labor Leverage Ratio Nonfarm and Private

The Labor Leverage Ratio is a measure of the willingness to quit for higher pay

The Labor Leverage Ratio (LLR) is the number of quits divided by the number of discharges, firings, and layoffs initiated by employers.

The BLS notes “the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.” The LLR is a refinement to the quits rate.

There is no cost to posting ghost jobs. And the benefits are obvious: Employers can placate overworked employees, keep them motivated, give an impression of growth, and just in case.

Openings are not real. Quits and the Labor Leverage Ratio provide a much more compelling story that the market has stabilized.

But there is another side of the story.

Is Your Hourly Pay or Salary Keeping Up With Inflation?

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Wage data from the Atlanta Fed, CPI from the BLS, chart by Mish

The Atlanta Fed has a wage tracker data series. I added CPI information to see who is and isn’t keeping up with inflation.

For discussion, please see Is Your Hourly Pay or Salary Keeping Up With Inflation?

Over 100% of the Increase in Employment Since 2020 is Foreign Born

US-born employment is lower now than it was in January of 2020. Foreign-born workers make up over 100 percent of the employment gains.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Please note that Over 100% of the Increase in Employment Since 2020 is Foreign Born

Not only are foreigners providing jobs, state and local governments have been adding huge numbers of jobs just to deal with immigrants.

Big Explosion of Government and Social Assistance Jobs

President Biden is bragging about job growth in 2023. But he doesn’t say where those jobs are.

Data from the BLS, chart and calculations by Mish.

Although quits suggest the labor markets have stabilized, the source of jobs suggests something else.

For discussion please see Big Explosion of Government and Social Assistance Jobs in 2023 to Help Migrants

The BLS jobs report is on Friday.

The consensus estimate from Bloomberg is 190,000, with 150,000 private payrolls. That’s an estimate for 40,000 more government jobs.

The growth in government jobs to handle the immigration surge offers compelling evidence the jobs market is not as strong as economists and Biden say.

And you know who will pay for those government jobs. You will, one way or another.

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