E It's Been A Terrific Bull Market. Too Bad It Has To End

Pessimism isn't as thrilling as optimism, nor has it ever made me any friends in the investing community. Few people want to hear the contrarian view when the S&P 500 refuses to correct for two consecutive days. The sideways price action, with each down day followed by an up day, is making people seasick and bored, enriching option sellers while frustrating bulls and bears.

It's more frustrating for bears, though, as the pessimists have logic on their side. At this point, no one is bothering to pretend that global commerce is robust by any measure:

Courtesy: WTO, Bloomberg

... and the smart (non-retail) money is decidedly risk-off, as measured by the flow of capital into risk-off asset classes:

Courtesy: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global

... and measured by pervasive uncertainty, the market's least favorite emotion (besides outright fear):

Courtesy: ZeroHedge

... not to mention the dismal reading of the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which just reached its lowest point since June of 2009:

Courtesy: Institute of Supply Management, CNBC

The manufacturing sector is the hart of American industry, yet the stock market refuses to correct in any meaningful, sustained manner because asset prices always lag behind economic realities; it's always been that way, so why should this time be any different? As long as there's hope of a trade-war resolution, or a halfway decent earnings report here and there, the S&P has an excuse to eke out another month of sideways price action.

It's strange times we're living in, with the dollar outperforming almost everything because everybody's desperate for a safe haven:

Courtesy: ZeroHedge

Gold and silver, in case you didn't get the memo, having been doing well for the same reason as the dollar: people are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Yet, they're not selling their stocks... but someday they will, and sadly, retail investors will be the last ones to sell. That's when pessimism will be thrilling again - it won't be a great time for humanity, but at least the prepared will prosper.

Disclosure: David Moadel is not a licensed or registered investment advisor, and has no position in any securities listed herein.

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Trimmer 1 year ago Member's comment

it won't end when the majority of the people think it will end. It will, when the euphoria is at all time high and greed index would be super high.

David Moadel 1 year ago Author's comment

Thank you for the comment Trimmer