It's A Bull Market For Gold

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 6/1/21 SPX at 4202.04 gain 2.1%; Long 5/19/21 at 4115.68 (SPX).           

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78 (GLD). 

Long Term SPX monitor purposes; sold long SPX on 1/15/21 at 3768.25= gain 10.80%; Long SPX on 10/26/20 at 3400.97.

The bottom window is the 3 day TRIN and third window up from the bottom is the 2 day TRIN.  Over the last couple of days both have been rising and a bullish short term sign.   We where expecting a pull back this week and that still may be the case but with rising TRIN readings the potential pull back may be shallow and could be limited to last Thursday low near 415 on the SPY.  Today’s TRIN closed at 1.37 and leans bullish but the tick closed at +457 which is bearish.  With the crosscurrent we will remain neutral for now. Sold 6/1/21 SPX at 4202.04 gain 2.1%. Long 5/19/21 at 4115.68.  

We updated this chart from yesterday and its still showing weakness.  Yesterday we said, “The top window is the SPX/TLT ratio.  Its common for the SPX/TLT ratio to lead SPX.  For the last several days the SPX/TLT ratio has been making lower highs as the SPX has been making higher highs which are a negative divergence.  This week is also the week before option expiration week where whipsaws are common.  Could see pull back this week.  Last Thursday decline tested the open gap near 415 on the SPY on higher volume and suggests that area will be tested again and could be a downside target.”  Sold SPX 6/1/21 for a gain of 2.1%.

The bottom window is the weekly Gold chart along with its Fibonacci retracements which was 61.8% from last March low.  Compare that to the weekly XAU chart which only retraced 38.2% showing that Gold stocks are stronger than Gold which shows this market is in a bull market.  This relationship can be seen in the weekly XAU/Gold ratio which has been steadily rising since December 2020 and has hit new three year high and a bullish longer term sign.  Though XAU has traded sideways since last November the weekly XAU/Gold ratio has hit new highs above last November.  In bull markets the XAU/GOLD ratio leads XAU.  This suggests new highs are coming for the XAU. Long GDX 10/9/20 at 40.78).

Disclaimer: Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future ...

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