Biden’s announced trip to a war zone has huge diplomatic, political and security risks. Is it an ill-advised political gamble or a smart move?

Normally, presidential trips to war zones are not announced in advance. This one is, and that increases the risk of something major going wrong.

The Wall Street Journal reports Biden’s Trip to Israel Carries Risks for U.S. Policy—and His Own Legacy.

With Israel on the brink of a ground invasion of Gaza, President Biden will visit the beleaguered nation with the aim of reinforcing American commitment to its security and addressing the spiraling humanitarian crisis in Gaza brought on by the war with Hamas.

As concerns intensify that the conflict could spread through the region, the U.S. hopes Biden’s trip will serve as a warning to any third parties—whether other nations or militant groups like Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah—that the U.S. was prepared to act if they join the conflict. By traveling to the region, the president is putting his credibility on the line and appearing to step deeper into the conflict, even as Biden and top administration officials asserted that U.S. combat troops wouldn’t be sent into another war.

Biden’s trip also poses a political challenge as he seeks a second term. Although support for Israel is popular among Americans overall in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks, especially among Republicans and independent voters, Biden risks losing support from his own party.

A group of progressive Democrats, including Reps. Cori Bush (D., Mo.), Rashida Tlaib (D., Mich.), André Carson (D., Ind.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.), drafted a resolution Monday calling for a cease-fire and immediate humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

Biden is scheduled to leave Washington late Tuesday. In addition to Israel, he will also travel to Amman, Jordan, to meet with regional leaders there, including Jordanian King Abdullah, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss humanitarian issues and other elements of the conflict.

Potential Risks

• A 35 vehicle motorcade running through Jerusalem will enflame tensions.
• A high value target get to Israel there by plane, announced in advance.
• A response from Lebanon might easily trigger a wider war.
• If something goes wrong, the United States will be in a full scale war in the Middle East.
• If something goes really wrong, Kamala will be in charge of the response.

Potential Gains

• Biden can expand his legacy if something goes right or wrong. This gain is entirely political.
• Perhaps Biden can persuade Israel to tone things down a bit or Egypt to accept more Palestinians.

Question of the Day

Is President Biden’s Announced Trip to Israel Worth the Huge Risks?

Biden’s announced trip to a war zone has huge diplomatic, political and security risks. Is it an ill-advised political gamble or a smart move?https://t.co/x58khQ21Xq pic.twitter.com/ebEEqccdjD

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) October 17, 2023

Humanitarian Crisis: Do You Support Israel Shutting of Water in Gaza Strip?

My question of the day on October 15 was Do You Support Israel Shutting of Water in Gaza Strip?

My question of the day today: Is Biden’s trip to Israel worth the risks?

If I am missing gains or risks, chime in.

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