E Is A Short Squeeze In Treasuries Imminent?

This weekend I saw comments by Art Cashin on the potential for a huge short squeeze in bonds and bond derivatives. He noted the huge amount of money in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Treasuries Fund TBT versus its stable mate the UltraLong Fund UBT. This is made all the more remarkable by the TBT returning a year-to-date return of -26% versus the +31% for UBT. (The UltraShort or UltraLong aim the double the daily up or down moves of the index they follow.)

What does the Primary Indicator say? First, the daily chart shows the TBT headed down again.

How about the longer cycle in the weekly chart?

The Primary Indicator is turning lower. Waiting for the short squeeze in Treasuries is going to take a while longer. Perhaps the long side of the trade knows the government is close to requiring retirement funds be allocated to “safe” investments like Treasuries?!

 

Disclosure: No positions in stock mentioned

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