Initial Claims Data from the Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Initial Claims Seasonally Adjusted 

•  In the week ending June 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 261,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's revised level. 
• This is the highest level for initial claims since October 30, 2021 when it was 264,000. 
• The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. 

Initial Claims 4-Week Moving Average 

Initial Claims Data from the Department of Labor, chart by Mish

• The 4-week moving average was 237,250, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average. 
• The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 229,500 to 229,750. 

Continued Unemployment Claims

Continued Unemployment Claims 4-Week Moving Average

Continued Claims Notes

• Continued claims lag initial claims by a week. They are generally additive in weakening labor markets.
• Curiously, continued claims fell this week and the 4-week moving average fell for the last two weeks.
• Rather than any real improvement, it's far more likely this is a summer impact of seasonal adjustments a bitoff base. 

I expect initial and continued claims to generally trend higher from here as Fed hikes finally take control. 

Right or wrong, the Fed wants a weakening labor market and perhaps it has finally arrived. 

Mortgage rates did not move on this weakness although treasury yields dropped a bit. The Mortgage News Daily average rate is 6.94 percent.

The Starter Home Is No More, Even in Second Tier Markets

Renters dreaming of homeownership are priced out of secondary cities they might've flocked to years ago.

The combination of high prices and high mortgage rates will also dampen the economy. 

For discussion, please see The Starter Home Is No More, Even in Second Tier Markets

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