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Initial and continued claims by the Department of Labor

Today the Department of Labor announced Unemployment Claims for the week ending November 29.

Key Initial Claims Numbers

• In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
• This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 189,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 216,000 to 218,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250.

Key Continued Claims Numbers

• The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 22, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 22 was 1,939,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
• The previous week’s level was revised down by 17,000 from 1,960,000 to 1,943,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,945,250, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 4,250 from 1,955,750 to 1,951,500.

Seasonal Adjustments

• The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 197,221 in the week ending November 29, a decrease of 49,419 (or -20.0 percent) from the previous week.
• The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 21,172 (or -8.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 211,226 initial claims in the comparable week in 2024.

What Happened?

I suspect three things. First, the seasonal adjustments are messed up.

Second, the number of people eligible to file a claim is dropping. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.

Third, immigrants (legal or not), are fearful of doing anything.

Continued claims tell a better, yet still incomplete picture.

Continued Unemployment Claims

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Continued claims and 4-week moving average of continued claims by the Department of Labor

Continued claims are hovering near the top end of their range.

Q: Have continued claims stabilized?
A: Technically, yes. But practically speaking, they don’t represent what’s really going on.

Continued Claims, 15+ and 27+ Week Unemployed

The combined picture adds those with expired benefits to continued claims.

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Continued unemployment claims monthly average and long-term unemployment numbers

I discussed the above chart on November 26, 2025 in Grim Unemployment Picture Is the Combined Worst Since October 2021

Four Factors Making Things Worse

• The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file an unemployment claim.
• Immigrants are hesitant to file a claim, even those who have been working here for years.
• Illegal immigrants are highly unlikely to respond to BLS phone calls regarding unemployment. This means the unemployment level itself is undercounted.
• Twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states including Florida offer 16 weeks of benefits or less. Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off continued claims counts.

Initial claims is not a good measure either. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.

And BLS sampling procedures are known to be suspect. Immigrants and self-employed are not properly counted.

Continued Claims Plus Expired Benefits (Through September)

• Continued Claims: 1,924,000 (now 1,945,250 4-week moving average)
• 27+ Weeks Unemployment: 1,814,000 (and rising fast)
• Continued Claims plus 27+ Weeks Unemployed: 3,738,000

The bare minimum number of adjusted continued claims is 3,738,000.

That’s because we need to add those ineligible for benefits, yet unemployed, to the total. And I say “minimum” because Twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states including Florida offer 16 weeks of benefits or less.

Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off continued claims counts. Job-hopping also reduces the number of weeks of benefits.

Long-Term Unemployment

The unemployment level is 7,603,000. The 15+ weeks or longer unemployment number is 3,105,000.

Of those unemployed, over 40.8 percent, and rising fast, have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks. This assumes accurate BLS surveys. In practice, the number and percentage are likely to be understated.

The preceding chart is only through September. The BLS cancelled October. November is will be delayed.

So, the above chart is the best combined picture we will have for a while.

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