Unemployment claims from department of labor, chart by Mish

Initial Claims

In the week ending May 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 30, 2021 when it was 264,000.

Initial Claims 4-Week Moving Average

The 4-week moving average was 245,250, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 239,250. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 249,250. 

Continued Claims

The number of continued claims rose slightly from 1,801,000 to 1,813,000.

Continued Claims 4-Week Moving Average

The 4-week average of continued claims rose slightly from 1,827,250 to 1,829,500.

The number of initial and continued claims are low historically. However, shifts up from major lows are recession signals. 

What to Expect

The Covid recession was both amazingly steep and a record low in duration, lasting only two months.

For this recession, I expect the opposite, a long period of general weakness in or near recession, with a minimal rise in the unemployment rate.

Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years

For a discussion of how demographics factors into employment and unemployment, please see Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years

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