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Continued unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending July 5.

Initial Unemployment Claims

• In the week ending July 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 235,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 241,500 to 241,250.

Continued Claims

• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 28 was 1,965,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 9,000 from 1,964,000 to 1,955,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 1,955,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,954,000 to 1,951,750.

Initial Claims and 4-Week Average

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Initial unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Change in Continued Unemployment Claims

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Change in continued unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

I do not have a satisfactory explanation for 24 straight weeks of alternating up-down changes in continued claims. It’s unprecedented. I suppose it could be a random fluke albeit with an amazingly small likelihood.

For whatever reason or none at all, the pattern broke seven weeks ago, but has since continued.

Final Thoughts

Tariffs and tariff uncertainty have now started to bite. Small businesses will be the ones most impacted.

Also, Trump has recently increased tariffs on steel and aluminum. All of these actions and events are guaranteed job killers.

I expect a surge in unemployment claims. However, BLS data and methods are so poor, it’s hard to say when this turns up in the jobs reports.

Related Posts

On June 16, I commented QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing

The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.

On July 2, I noted ADP Reports 33,000 Job Losses in June with Negative Revisions in May

Small and medium-sized businesses shed jobs in June.

On July 3, I noted Jobs Beat Expectations, Up 147,000 in June, but Government Jobs Rise 73,000

Government to the rescue?

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