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Data from the Department of Labor, chart by Mish.

I will tell you upfront, the title is a bit of a tease. The data is an important piece, but stand alone will not answer the question.

So if you answered yes or no to the question without the correct reason, you missed the boat. This data is only half of what’s needed to answer the question. But we need to discuss this data before we get to the second half.

Hurricane Helene Distortions

Reuters reports US weekly jobless claims surge amid Hurricane Helene distortions

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits surged last week, partially boosted by Hurricane Helene and furloughs at Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab amid a nearly four-week-old strike at the U.S. planemaker.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 33,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended October. 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. There were large increases in unadjusted claims in North Carolina and Florida and claims also rose in Washington state. Helene, which tore through Florida and devastated large swathes of the U.S. Southeast in late September, is likely to continue distorting claims data in the weeks ahead.

Fact Check: True

Hurricane Helene greatly exaggerated unemployment claims and hurricane Milton is likely to do the same.

Continued Unemployment Claims

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Cause for Alarm?

Continued claims spiked but they are still below a level reached on July 27, 2024.

It’s easy to spin this however you want.

But even without hurricane distortions there is no way of looking at this data in isolation, either weekly or 4-week moving averages that directly answers the question.

The answer is yes, there is a huge cause for alarm. But I am going to do a separate post (my very next one), on the right way to look at claims data.

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