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Food prices from the BLS, chart by Mish

Food Away from Home vs Food at Home Month-Over-Month

• In the prior 19 months, the monthly price of food fell 3 months, was unchanged 6 months, rose 0.1 percent 5 times, rose 0.2 percent 3 times, and more than 0.2 percent only twice.
• That string of good news for food at home ended in September with a 0.4 percent jump.
• In the prior 19 months, food away from home rose at least 0.4 percent on eleven occasions, and was never negative or zero.

Six CPI Food Categories Month-Over-Month

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This is a nasty chart. If your basket is heavily towards (meat, fish, poultry, eggs) or (fruits and vegetables) you took a big hit this month.

CPI With a Spotlight on Food

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The year-over-year price of food and beverage, and food at home appear to have bottomed.

CPI Six Food Categories Year-Over-Year

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The year-over-year price of meat, fish, poultry, and eggs is ripping higher. This is as expected given the surge in month-over-month prices.

The decline in the year-over-year price of food away from home has stalled. I suspect it will soon turn back up. Factor in rising tips and it never receded as much as the chart implies.

CPI Food Index Levels

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The above chart is what ties everything together. It’s one thing to say year-over-year numbers are falling, and it’s an entirely different thing to say prices are falling.

If your diet is cereal, congrats! You get to say the price of food is down 0.28 percent from a year ago.

If you primarily dine out, your bill (not counting tips) has gone up by 3.6 percent. As calculated above from unadjusted levels it’s 3.9 percent.

Increase From Pre-Pandemic

• Food at Home: +26.34 percent
• Food Away From Home: 28.7 percent
• Fruits and Vegetables: +18.0 percent
• Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: +30.3 percent
• Cereals +28.6 percent
• Dairy: +20.6 percent

Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs

On September 27, I noted Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs

Both candidates have been asked questions what they would do about the rising cost of food. Let’s discuss their answers.

Trump also blamed imports. That is preposterous. Reducing imports would raise prices. And if Trump deports migrant crop pickers, prices will skyrocket.

Click on the post for a discussion of the correct answer. Hint: Think of something President Reagan said.

CPI Good News on Shelter and Energy But Food Jumps

Earlier today, I commented CPI Good News on Shelter and Energy But Food Jumps

The CPI was a mix of good and bad in September. The good outweighs the bad especially for renters. But what’s ahead?

Talking Points

Today, the BLS handed trump an enormous talking point on a silver platter.

If Trump was smart (not that he can or will do anything about this), he would hammer this issue hard, in the correct way, blasting Harris for suggesting price controls.

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