The Federal Reserve posts Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers for February.

Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The output of manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent. The index for mining gained 2.8 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.5 percent. At 104.2 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in February was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.

Industrial Production Month-Over-Month Details

• IP: +0.7 Percent
• Manufacturing: +0.9 Percent
• Motor Vehicles and Parts: +8.5 Percent
• Utilities: -2.5 Percent
• Consumer Durable Goods: +4.3 Percent

Industrial Production

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Manufacturing is well below the peak set at the start of the Great Recession in January of 2008.

Industrial Production Detail

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I asked Brad Setser, senior Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) fellow, if any of this is tariff related. I will post the answer when I get a reply.

Motor Vehicles are very jumpy so perhaps it’s just noise.

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Related to recession, factor in tariffs, trade disruptions, DOGE firings, an abrupt halt to immigration and immigration-related spending, and massive business uncertainty about everything Trump does.

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