New home sales from Census Department, chart by Mish

Let’s review the November Census Bureau report on New Residential Construction.

• New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in November 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.2 percent (±15.6 percent) below the revised October rate of 672,000, but is 1.4 percent (±19.8 percent) above the November 2022 estimate of 582,000.
• Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2023 was $434,700. The average sales price was $488,900.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 451,000. This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate.

New Home Sales Since 1963

Interesting New Home Sale Facts

• Down 12.2% since last month
• Down 27.2% since January 2022
• Down 47.2% since August 2020
• Down 57.5% from the record high in July of 2005
• Up 118.5% from the February 2011 record low
• Down 11.3 percent from July of 1963

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

Fictional Homes For Sale

• Of the allegedly 451,000 homes for sale only 78,000 are completed.
• 106,000 of the 439,000 homes for sale have not even broken ground.

Fictional Supply of Homes for Sale

Based on fictional sales and a fictional number of homes for sale, the Census Department calculates the fictional supply of new homes at 9.2 months. This is a seldom exceeded fictional number.

Housing Starts Jump 14.8 in November

Housing starts jumped 14.8 percent in November led by single family construction, up 18 percent. Revisions were negative.

Housing data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

In contrast to new home sales Housing Starts Jump 14.8 Percent but Permits Sink 2.5 Percent

This makes today’s new home sales report more interesting.

Existing Home Sales

Existing-home sales courtesy of the National Association of Realtors via the St. Louis Fed

In November, Existing Home Sales Rose 0.8 Percent, Only the Third Increase in 22 Months

The National Association of Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun, eyes a “marked turn“.

I am more than a bit skeptical of major turn because prices and mortgage rates are still too high. However, we are likely in a bottoming process IF the economy holds up.

See the above link for discussion of my thoughts vs Yun.

More By This Author: