New home sales revisions yesterday were exceptional. I created a new chart to show the changes.

New home sales from Census Department, chart by Mish

Last month I reported New Home Sales Jump 12.3 Percent Smash Expectations

That didn’t happen. Barring no further revisions (unlikely), sales did jump 8.6 percent. But from August unrevised the jump was actually 6.4 percent.

From the as initially reported July sales 736,000 sales are down to 679,000. That’s a 7.7 percent decline in three months.

With revisions out of the way, let’s ponder the latest Census Bureau fictional report on New Residential Construction.

New Residential Construction Report for October

• New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. This is 5.6 percent (±12.3 percent) below the revised September rate of 719,000 but is 17.7 percent (±17.9 percent) above the October 2022 estimate of 577,000.
• Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2023 was $409,300. The average sales price was $487,000.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 439,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate

Please note the huge margins of error on these reports, currently±12.3 percent month-over-month and ±17.9 percent year-over-year.

New Home Sales Since 1963

New home sales are down 34 percent since August of 2020 and are back near levels hit in 1963. That’s pretty much a crash.

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

Fictional Homes For Sale

• Of the allegedly 439,000 homes for sale only 76,000 are completed.
• 106,000 of the 439,000 homes for sale have not even broken ground.

Fictional Supply of Homes for Sale

Based on fictional sales and a fictional number of homes for sale, the Census Department calculates the fictional supply of new homes at 7.8 months.

Existing Home Sales Hit a New 13-Year Low

Existing-home sales courtesy of the National Association of Realtors via the St. Louis Fed

On November 21, I noted Existing Home Sales Sink 4.1 Percent, Down 19 of the Last 21 Months

Existing-home sales are down 40 percent since January of 2022.

Comparatively speaking, new home sales are doing great, down only 34 percent. Yet the price of existing homes keeps rising.

How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures

For discussion of this dual-track housing bubble with rising prices despite a transaction crash, please see How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures

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