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Government jobs month-over-month change

Government Jobs October Change

• All: -157,000
• State: -12,000
• Local: +17,000
• Federal: -162,000

Q: What Happened?
A: Nine months ago, led by the now disbanded DOGE, the administration fired tens of thousands of workers.

However, they were paid to do nothing until September. So, they were considered employed.

This is a mostly a one-time change as evidenced by the small Federal change in November of -6,000.

In October, total nonfarm payrolls was -105,000.

Given Government jobs declined by 157,000, private sector jobs expanded by 52,000 in October (assuming you believe the data).

November Change in Jobs by Sector

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Nonfarm payrolls month-over-month change by sector

Job Change by Sector Details

• Total Nonfarm: +64,000
• Manufacturing: -5,000
• Construction: 28,000
• Leisure and Hospitality: -12,000
• Private Education and Health: 65,000
• Professional and Business Services: 12,000
• Information: -4,000
• Financial: -2,000
• Retail: 6,000
• Wholesale: -2,000
• Government: -5,000

Key Three-Month Changes

• Private Education and Health: 180,000
• Total nonfarm: 67,000
• Construction: 48,000
• Leisure and Hospitality: 46,000

Private Education and Health is demographics related. Construction reflects power and data center builds.

Manufacturing

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Manufacturing payrolls month-over-month change

Manufacturing gained jobs in only 2 of the last 12 months, with one month unchanged.

All of this is OK because Trump says this is the greatest economy ever.

Labor Market Recap

December 3, 2025 : Small Businesses Drop 120,000 Jobs in November, ADP Total Down 32,000

Year-Over-Year Change

• Small: -197,000
• Medium: +275,000
• Large: +1,012,000

December 4, 2025: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November

Announcements imply future, not immediate, layoffs and unemployment claims.

Unlike large employers, small businesses have fewer means of tariff avoidance and less ability to hold inventory or eat the tariffs.

December 5, 2025: Revelio Says Payrolls Decline by 9,000 the 5th Drop in 7 Months

We don’t have BLS reports but we do have ADP and Revelio.

December 11, 2025: How Fast is the US Shedding Foreign-Worker Jobs?

Think carefully.

Please read that last link. It’s an unbiased assessment that vastly differs from other reports on what’s happening with US and foreign workers.

Finally, please note President Trump Promised a Manufacturing Boom. Where Is It?

The answer is China.

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