Photo by Steve Johnson on Unsplash
 

I created some new charts on AI spending. Please take a look.
 

The BEA has still not reported any GDP stats for the third quarter of 2025.

Due to the government shutdown, the initial GDP for the third quarter was delayed until December 23.

Meanwhile, I did create some new charts to show the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending on first-half growth.

Change in Real Nonresidential Spending in Billions Q1

• Q1 Software: $34.3 Billion
• Q1 IP R&D: -$3.2 Billion
• QI IP Equipment: $68.6 Billion
• Q1 AI (Software, R&D, IP Equipment): $99.7 Billion
• Q1 Nonresidential Total: $81.0 Billion
• Q1 Nonresidential Other Than AI: -18.7 Billion

Change in Real Nonresidential Spending in Billions Q2

• Q1 Software: $49.4 Billion
• Q1 IP R&D: $13.5 Billion
• QI IP Equipment: $16.8 Billion
• Q1 AI (Software, R&D, IP Equipment): $79.7 Billion
• Q1 Nonresidential Total: $63.9 Billion
• Q1 Nonresidential Other Than AI: -15.8 Billion

Real Private Fixed Investment
 

Residential is a drag on GDP and so is nonresidential other than AI.

Manufacturing and Power
 

Power is from the Census Bureau, not the BEA. Neither Manufacturing nor power construction played a significant role in GDP in 2025.

Percentage Point Contributions to GDP
 

Nonresidential Contribution to GDP

• 2025 Q1: 1.36 Percentage Points
• 2025 Q2: 0.78 Percentage Points

But the AI contribution is greater because the non-AI nonresidential contribution was negative in both quarters.

I factored out the negative contribution using the following calculation.

Nonresidential AI Contribution to GDP

• 2025 Q1: 1.36 * 97.9 / 81.0 = 1.64 Percentage Points
• 2025 Q2: 0.78 * 79.7 / 63.9 = 0.97 Percentage Points

Growth in real AI-related expenditures contributed about 1.64 percentage points to Q1 and about 0.97 percentage points to Q2.

Real GDP, Real Final Sales, Real GDI
 

Q1: Without the AI-related contribution, Real GDP would have contracted by about 2.2 percent instead of the reported 0.6 percent contraction.

Q2: Without the AI-related contribution, Real GDP would have expanded by about 2.8 percent instead of the reported 3.8 percent gain.

The Fed likes to watch Real Final Domestic Sales. Without the AI-related boost, I have Real Final Domestic Sales Q1 at -0.2 percent and Q2 at 1.4 percent.

I have no estimates for Q3, but with new charts in place, I expect to have Q3 AI numbers on December 23.

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