Housing data from the Census Department. Chart by Mish.

Please consider the Census Department New Residential Construction Report for July 2023.

Permits

• Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000.
• This is 0.1 percent above the revised June rate of 1,441,000, but is 13.0 percent below the July 2022 rate of 1,658,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 930,000; this is 0.6 percent above the revised June figure of 924,000.
• Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 464,000 in July.

Housing Starts

• Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,452,000.
• This is 3.9 percent (±16.0 percent) above the revised June estimate of 1,398,000 and is 5.9 percent (±16.1 percent) above the July 2022 rate of 1,371,000.
• Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 983,000; this is 6.7 percent (±13.0 percent) above the revised June figure of 921,000.
• The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 460,000.

Housing Completions

• Privately‐owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000.
• This is 11.8 percent (±7.8 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,498,000 and is 5.4 percent (±11.1 percent) below the July 2022 rate of 1,396,000.
• Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,018,000; this is 1.3 percent (±11.6 percent) above the revised June rate of 1,005,000.
• The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 297,000.

Please note the margins of error in these reports. It’s been revision, after revision, after revision, mostly negative.

Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family

Housing Starts, Permits, Completions Since 2000

Housing Starts 1959-Present

To put the rebound from 2010 in perspective, housing starts are still well below where they were in January of 1959.

That’s the strong cyclical nature of new home construction.

Revisions

Last month, I commented Housing Starts Dive 8 Percent in June On Top of Significant Negative Revisions

Well, not really. Thanks to still more revisions, June is now down 11.7 percent from May as the commerce department revised June from 1,434 to 1,398.

Another Heavily Revised Housing Starts Joke of a Report for May 2023

On June 20, I commented Another Heavily Revised Housing Starts Joke of a Report for May 2023

Last month I stated “History suggests the April rise will be revised away in May.”

Sure enough. The Commerce Department revised housing starts in April from 1,401,000 to 1,340,000. That’s a negative revision of 4.4 percent. The big jump in April is now a reported decline. So take the huge jump this month with with a heavy dose of skepticism.

Repeat Performance

Last month I commented “There was a big jump in May from significant negative revisions in April. And now we see huge negative revisions to May.”

Today we see June way revised significantly from May.

These residential construction reports are a total joke.

NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Dips 10.7 Percent in August

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) resumed its slide in August. Traffic remains in the gutter.

For discussion, please see NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Dips 10.7 Percent in August

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