Housing data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Via incentives, mortgage write downs, and limited availability of existing homes to buy, the builders are holding up much better than real estate agents.

Building Permits

• Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000.
• This is 2.5 percent below the revised October rate of 1,498,000, but is 4.1 percent above the November 2022 rate of 1,402,000.
• Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 976,000; this is 0.7 percent above the revised October figure of 969,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 435,000 in November.

Housing Starts

• Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,560,000.
• This is 14.8 percent (±14.0 percent) above the revised October estimate of 1,359,000 and is 9.3 percent (±14.6 percent) above the November 2022 rate of 1,427,000.
• Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 18.0 percent (±12.9 percent) above the revised October figure of 969,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.

Housing Completions

• Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,447,000.
• This is 5.0 percent (±15.1 percent) above the revised October estimate of 1,378,000, but is 6.2 percent (±15.2 percent) below the November 2022 rate of 1,543,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 960,000; this is 3.2 percent (±13.2 percent) below the revised October rate of 992,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 472,000.

Margins of Error

Note the huge margins of error in these reports, ±14.0 percent for starts and ±15.1 percent for completions.

Revisions were negative again, with October starts revised from 1.372 million to 1.359 million. Absent revisions, November would still be up a big 13.7 percent (±14.0 percent).

Major Boom-Bust Swings

Housing starts are a bit less than they were in 1959.

The major boom-bust cycles are largely a result of Fed policy. The results you see from 2020-present are almost entirely due to Fed QE then QT policy.

How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures

For discussion of the Fed’s role in this mess, please see How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures

The Fed is largely responsible for the Great Recession crash, but this one is totally on them.

The existing-home sale report is tomorrow and new home sales on Friday.

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