(Click on image to enlarge)

The Monthly New Residential Construction report for March 2025 ended the quarter on a weak note for starts.

Building Permits

• Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,482,000. This is 1.6 percent above the revised February rate of 1,459,000, but is 0.2 percent below the March 2024 rate of 1,485,000.
• Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 978,000; this is 2.0 percent below the revised February figure of 998,000.
• Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 445,000 in March.

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent (±13.5 percent) below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent (±10.6 percent) above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000.

Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 940,000; this is 14.2 percent (±14.2 percent) below the revised February figure of 1,096,000.

The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 371,000.

Housing Completions

Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,549,000. This is 2.1 percent (±11.5 percent) below the revised February estimate of 1,582,000, but is 3.9 percent (±10.7 percent) above the March 2024 rate of 1,491,000.

Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 1,029,000; this is 0.9 percent (±10.9 percent)*above the revised February rate of 1,020,000.

The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 503,000

Note the huge margins of error in these numbers, up to 13 percentage points in starts and 10 percentage points in completions.

Housing Starts 1959-Present

The boom-bust nature of housing is on fill display in the above chart.

Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family

(Click on image to enlarge)

Understanding Current Forces

• Boomers drove a huge need for housing. But the supply of housing from retiring and dying boomers will accelerate.
• Millennials and Zoomers are having fewer kids. Affordability is a huge issue.
• Immigration drove a huge need for multi-family but Trump put a screeching halt to immigration needs.
• Mortgage rates are still near 7.0 percent and tariff uncertainty adds to job loss fears.

In addition to demographics, the Fed is a big driver of prices and demand.

Related Posts

March 20, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Rebound 4.2 Percent from -4.7 Percent in February

Meandering weakness continues. Sales have gone nowhere for two years.

March 15, 2025: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index Hits Another New Record High, Thank the Fed

I have not commented on Case-Shiller for a while. Here is a batch of new charts.

Prices are high but few are buying.

On February 3, 2025:  Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed

Is the Fed playing politics? Does the Fed know what it’s doing at all?

More By This Author:

China Boosts Southeast Asia Ties But Trump Alienates Them
Ford Halts Shipments Of F-150s And Other Models To China, Winning?
Need Car Repairs? Get Them Done While Parts Are Still Available