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Housing starts, permits, and completions from the Census Department, chart by Mish

The New Residential Construction Report for July shows a decline in permits but a rise in housing starts and completions.

Building Permits

• Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7 percent below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.
• Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 870,000; this is 0.5 percent above the revised June figure of 866,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 430,000 in July.

Housing Starts

• Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent (±14.7 percent) above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent (±13.6 percent) above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000.
• Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 939,000; this is 2.8 percent (±11.8 percent) above the revised June figure of 913,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 470,000.

Housing Completions

• Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000. This is 6.0 percent (±13.5 percent) above the revised June estimate of 1,335,000, but is 13.5 percent (±10.8 percent) below the July 2024 rate of 1,635,000.
• Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,022,000; this is 11.6 percent (±14.6 percent) above the revised June rate of 916,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 385,000.

Note the Trends and Margins of Error

The margins of error in these reports are high. The Census Department does not have a lot of faith in these estimates and neither do I.

However, some trends are easy to spot. For example, permits keep dropping and are now down 29.5 percent from the January 2022 high of 1.92 million.

You can’t start what isn’t permitted.

Completions rose in July but are down 19.4 percent from the August 2024 high. Completions feed GDP.

Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family

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Housing start single-family vs multifamily from the Census Department, chart by Mish

Single-family housing starts are in the middle of a broad range since November 2022. The low end of the range is 795,000 and the upper end is 1.14 million.

Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent

On July 23, I reported Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High

Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.

That alleged Median Price Record did not happen. The NAR does a terrible job at seasonal adjustments (if it tries at all).

Click on above link for discussion. And expect rapid decline now in NAR median prices.

The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again

On July 29, 2025, I reported The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index declined another 0.3 percent in May.

Prices have dropped, but the Case-Shiller National index is up 52.1 percent since January 2020.

The decline is barely noticeable.

Buyer Traffic Very Low

Yesterday, I commented Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Remains Weak, Buyer Traffic Very Low

The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.

Housing cannot gain traction as mortgage rates are still too high and prices remain out of sight.

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