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The New Residential Construction stats for July were a disaster.

Building Permits

• Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,396,000.
• This is 4.0 percent below the revised June rate of 1,454,000 and is 7.0 percent below the July 2023 rate of 1,501,000.
• Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 938,000; this is 0.1 percent below the revised June figure of 939,000.
• Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 408,000 in July.

Housing Starts

• Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000. This is 6.8 percent (±10.3 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,329,000 and is 16.0 percent (±10.5 percent) below the July 2023 rate of 1,473,000.
• Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 851,000; this is 14.1 percent (±8.3 percent) below the revised June figure of 991,000.
• The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 363,000.

Housing Completions

• Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,529,000. This is 9.8 percent (±8.4 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,696,000 but is 13.8 percent (±13.9 percent) above the July 2023 rate of 1,343,000.
• Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,054,000; this is 0.5 percent (±10.4 percent)* above the revised June rate of 1,049,000.
• The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 473,000.

Month-Over-Month Margins of Error

• ±10.3 percent for starts
• ±8.4 percent for completions

Housing Starts 1959-Present

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As a point of reference, starts are 25.3 percent below the January 1959 level of 1,657.

Housing Starts, Permits, Completions

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Housing Units Under Construction

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Housing Activity Peaked Summer of 2022

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Based on units under construction, housing peaked in the summer of 2022 as mortgage rates shot over 5.0 percent.

Yet, home prices kept rising as existing-home sales plunged. Nobody wanted to trade a 3.0 percent mortgage for one much higher, currently about 6.5 percent.

Homebuilder rate buydowns are not enough to stimulate housing.

If this looks recessionary, it’s because a recession has begun.

Recession Underway

July 25, 2024: “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites

August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions

August 2: 2024: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered

August 15, 2024: Industrial Production Declines 0.6 Percent on Top of Big Negative Revisions

It seems to me that all hell breaking loose.

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