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New homes for sale by stage of construction

Stage of Construction Details

• Total: 511,000 Most since 518,000 in July of 2007.
• Started + Completed: 390,000 matching May 2008
• Under Construction: 271,000 vs 279,000 in June 2007
• Completed: 119,000 The most since 126,000 in July 2009
• Not Started: 121,000 A new record

I do not consider empty lots a home for sale. Nonetheless, it’s another sign of a speculative problem.

The number of completed homes for sale did not surpass the speculative housing bubble peak of 194,000 ahead of the great recession, but this is a very elevated number.

The best measure of builder commitment is completed plus under constriction. These units have big carrying costs. The current 390,000 matches that of May 2008 in the middle of the Great Recession.

New Homes for Sale Supply in Months

The Commerce Department says the supply of homes for sale is 9.8 months. But that assumes you are willing to call empty lots a “home for sale”.

It really doesn’t matter much because the trends are all the same.

On the finished side, 2.3 percent supply does not seem outrageous. However, the number of units in the lead chart reeks of builder speculation.

The second problem with the supply calculations is they are based on current sales. Will they hold up? Are they even accurate?

New Home Sales Stagnate as Homes for Sale Hits New Post-Covid High

Earlier today I noted New Home Sales Stagnate as Homes for Sale Hits New Post-Covid High

New Home Sales

• Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000.
• This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent) above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent) below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
• Note the margin of error on the 0.6 percent rise.

So, sales are up 0.6 percent ±13.3 percent.

If there is another big leg down in sales, and there will be in recession, these months’ supply figures will soar.

I expect huge price pressures on completed, and also on started but not sold homes.

In case you missed it, please see Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High

Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.

I believe the NAR new price record is bogus. I will explain in a third housing post.

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