Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly payroll report. The unemployment rate fell from 0.2 percent to 3.5 percent. 

However, the jobs strength and employment strength are two different things. Today, I added "full-time" employment, shown above, to my ongoing chart.

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,162,000
• Employment Level: +478,000
• Full Time Employment: -57,000

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on a subset of employer reporting.

The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and full vs part time status.

If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed. Instead, you are no longer in the work force.

Increasing Divergence 

Nonfarm payrolls are a subset of all jobs, but generally, the numbers move in the same direction over time. 

The Employment (Household Survey) is noisy. However, 7 months is a reasonable time frame for discrepancies to resolve.

Since March of 2022, payrolls are up about 2.2 million but full time employment is down by 57 thousand. 

That means all of the employment rise (and then some) since March is part-time employment. 

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate from BLS, chart by Mish. 

Today the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent matching its record low because people dropped out of the labor force and employment rose.

Jobs Market Remains Tight as Unemployment Rate Dips to 3.5 Percent in September

For more on today's jobs report including wage growth, hours worked, and job sector analysis, please see Jobs Market Remains Tight as Unemployment Rate Dips to 3.5 Percent in September

Since March, these reports have been a tale of two headlines, seemingly at odds: strong jobs but weak employment.

Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Job Losses

Given hiring pressures and boomer retirements, Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Job Losses

The stock market is another issue. For discussion, please see Artificial Wealth vs GDP: Why Earnings and the Stock Market Will Get Crushed

While I expect the unemployment rate will not rise much in this recession, it's another thing for the unemployment rate to decline and jobs to rise by millions.

Job Openings Decline by Over a Million, But What Does It Mean?

Job openings decline but from record levels. Let's discuss the implications.

In case you missed it, please see Job Openings Decline by Over a Million, But What Does It Mean?

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