Has Oil Bottomed?

After two weeks of declining prices from $66 to $58, Oil is bouncing back above 60$ and we take a look at the charts to see if there is a chance that Oil price has bottomed and a new upward move has started. My view is that yes Oil could very well have bottomed at current $58 price low. Oil has retraced almost 38% of the rise from June lows. This is a shallow retracement and an indication that the bullish trend could still have more upside. Towards 69-70$ or even $78.50-80.

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Taking a closer look at the 4 hour chart we see Oil prices have broken out of the bearish channel. We could see a back test of the broken channel and even a pull back towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A move above $61.60 would be a very bullish sign. Oil is making higher highs and higher lows since the $58 low. So it is important for bulls to not break below it.

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If we break below $58 I expect Oil prices to fall towards $55-56. That area should be the reversal area for the next leg upwards towards $80. The 38% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from June 2017 is at 57.25$. This would be my target. Oil is at a phase where I would not focus on the short side rather on finding a good risk reward setup for the upside. Either near $59.50 or around $57 if we break $58. Longer-term I’m bullish, waiting for a confirmation of a trend reversal.

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Abe Jouejati 3 years ago Contributor's comment

Alexandros Yfantis good read. I agree that the new lows and highs are higher. I think this indicates a positive trend and trajectory.

Moreover, and increasing CPI also means higher prices overall, especially on commodities. If Fed hikes interest rates, the inflated crude prices should stabilize around the $80 mark.