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Continued unemployment claims monthly average and long-term unemployment numbers

Today the Department of Labor updated Unemployment Claims data for the first time since the government shutdown. But the lead picture tells a much better story.

Initial Unemployment Claims

• In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 220,000 to 222,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 223,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 224,250 to 224,750.

Continued Claims

• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 15 was 1,960,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 21,000 from 1,974,000 to 1,953,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 1,955,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 5,250 from 1,960,250 to 1,955,000.

Since people are highly likely to file for benefits, I don’t dispute the numbers.

However, the continued claims number, rising very slowly, does not tell the full story. Once someone loses a job it is difficult to find another. And as soon as someone exhausts their benefits they are no longer counted.

Combined Picture Monthly Average Through September

• Continued Claims: 1,814,000
• 27+ Weeks Unemployment: 1,814,000
• 15+ Weeks Unemployment: 3,105,000
• Continued Claims Plus 27+ Weeks: 3,738,000
• Continued Claims Plus 15+ Weeks: 5,029,000

Maximum Weeks of Unemployment Insurance

Chart courtesy of Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

The combination of expiring benefits and job hopping reduces eligibility for making unemployment claims.

Also the self-employed are not eligible for unemployment insurance although they have to pay into the system.

Ability for the self-employed to collect benefits would lead to fraud. However, paying for benefits that one can never collect is an outright scam.

Four Factors Making Things Worse

• The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file an unemployment claim.
• Illegal immigrants are hesitant to file a claim, even those who have been working here for years.
• Illegal immigrants are highly unlikely to respond to BLS phone calls regarding unemployment. This means the unemployment level itself is undercounted.
• Twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states including Florida offer 16 weeks of benefits or less. Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off continued claims counts.

The unemployment level is 7,603,000. The 15+ weeks or longer unemployment number is 3,105,000.

Of those unemployed, over 40.8 percent, and rising fast, have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks.

Reasons the Numbers Are Worse than They Look

Don’t be fooled by the slow rise in continued claims. For the reasons noted, it’s a poor estimate of the problem.

Initial claims is not a good measure either. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.

And BLS sampling procedures are known to be suspect. Immigrants and self-employed are not properly counted.

The grim-looking lead chart is in reality much worse than it looks. Finally, the chart lags. These numbers are only through September.

Labor Market Woes

November 7, 2025: Revelio’s Realistic Assessment of the US Labor Market and Jobs – Sinking Fast

Kudos to Revelio for providing an excellent set of jobs-related data.

November 14, 2025: ADP Pulse of Net Private Job Creation Drops to Negative 11,250 Per Week

How fast is the economy shedding jobs?

My assessment is fast. Especially small businesses that I believe are under-sampled.

November 22, 2025: BLS Nonfarm Jobs Revisions Are Negative 26 Out of Last 32 Months

The latest revision sets jobs at -4,000 in August from initial report of +22,000.

Consumer Confidence

Labor market woes and rising grocery prices show up in two distinct surveys.

For discussion, please see US Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply in November, a Big Warning

This Conference Board measure mirrors the University of Michigan sentiment reading.

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