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• The price of gold jumped over 1% to $2,385 on Friday, spurred by mixed US NFP data and heightened Fed rate cut speculation.
• June NFP data surpassed forecasts, yet revisions for April and May seemed to indicate an accelerating labor market cooldown.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined 0.16% to 104.95, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped more than six basis points to 4.284%.

The price of gold rallied during Friday's trading session following the release of June’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which exceeded forecasts, but two previous months’ downward revisions hinted that the labor market may be cooling faster than the figures show. Therefore, traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, sparking a headwind for the greenback and a tailwind for the yellow metal.

The XAU/USD cross was seen trading at around $2,391 on Friday. It registered gains of over 1.40% in the day and more than 2.70% in the week after bouncing off the daily lows of $2,349, sponsored in part by a weaker US dollar, which remained undermined by lower US Treasury bond yields.

The US Dollar Index lost approximately 0.16%, down to 104.95, while the US 10-year benchmark yield tumbled more than six basis points (bps) to 4.284%.

US NFPs for June were positive, but the data from April and May were revised downward, hinting that the economy added 111,000 fewer jobs than reported in those two months. Consequently, the Unemployment Rate rose a tenth in June, above consensus.

Other data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that Average Hourly Earnings remained flat month-over-month, but declined yearly.

Aside from this, geopolitics continued to play an important role in the yellow metal’s path. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a delegation to continue negotiations on hostages and reiterated the war wouldn’t end until Israel achieves all its objectives. Meanwhile, a Hamas leader said they’re waiting for a positive response from Israel to start negotiations on the details of a deal, according to CNN.

Market Movers: The Gold Price Advanced Post-US NFP

• US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 206,000, surpassing the estimated 190,000, but April and May's figures were revised down to 108,000 and 218,000, respectively.
• Average Hourly Earnings declined from 4.1% to 3.9% year-over-year, which is in line with expectations, while the Unemployment Rate increased from 4% to 4.1%.
• On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee revealed June’s Meeting Minutes, which showed that most participants estimated that the current policy is restrictive but had opened the door for rate increases. Policymakers acknowledged the economy is cooling and could react to unexpected economic weakness.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September are at 70%, up from 66% on Thursday.
• December 2024 fed funds rate futures contract implies that the Fed will ease policy by 40 basis points (bps) toward the end of the year.

Technical Analysis: Gold Price Crushed Head-and-Shoulders Neckline, Could Aim for $2,400

The price of gold decisively broke through the head-and-shoulders neckline, which lifted spot prices near the $2,390 mark. This seemed to indicate that bulls were in charge and higher prices may lie ahead.

The momentum shifted in buyers' favor, as depicted by a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI). A daily close above the June 21 high of $2,368 could open the door for a higher trading range within the $2,370-$2,400 area, with buyers targeting higher prices.

If the price breaks above the $2,400 mark in the coming days, such a move would expose the year-to-date high of $2,450 before challenging the $2,500 level.

On the other hand, if sellers manage to drive the spot price below $2,350, further declines could then target the $2,300 level. If this support fails, the next demand zone would be the May 3 low of $2,277, followed by the March 21 high of $2,222.

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