Gold Price Forecast: Is Gold At Risk From A US Dollar Turning Point?

GOLD FUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold Consolidating as Fed Remains Dovish.
  • Potential US Dollar Turning Point Presents a Risk to Gold.
  • Key US Data in Focus: NFP and ISM PMIs.

GOLD CONSOLIDATING AS FED REMAINS DOVISH

Gold prices have risen for a second consecutive week, signaling that the precious metal is attempting to form a base. The Federal Reserve showed little signs of taking the foot off the (stimulus) gas, with Chair Powell emphasizing that the pandemic presents considerable downside risks in the near-term while also reiterating that it is too soon to be talking about tapering asset purchases.

That said, the outlook will continue to remain favorable for the precious metal, particularly as US real yields hold below -100 bps. However, while gold prices have steadied, upside has been largely capped by a renewed bid in the greenback.

POTENTIAL US DOLLAR TURNING POINT PRESENTS A RISK TO GOLD

The US Dollar has shown tentative signs of a recovery, with the DXY maintaining a foothold above the 90.00 handle. In turn, the greenback has tested the descending trendline stemming from the March peak.

Equity markets have had a challenging week, with long/short hedge fund strategies facing pressure from the relentless short squeeze seen in Reddit favorites (AMC, GME). Given the plethora of articles surrounding the topic, I will save my view for another time.

That being said, a factor that has been somewhat under-reported has been the draining of liquidity in Chinese markets, in which the PBoC advisor signaled concerns over asset bubbles. Should equity market deleveraging pick up the pace, safe-haven flows into the USD presents a risk for gold.

US DOLLAR CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME

US Dollar Weekly Chart

Source: Refinitiv

Gold Data provided by IG. Sentiment is Mixed

CHANGE IN LONGS SHORTS OI
DAILY -5% 9% -3%
WEEKLY -7% -9% -7%
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