The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 1.2596, its lowest swing on January 17th.

Bearish view

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2596.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2785.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2700 and a take-profit at 1.2785.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2600.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The GBP/USD exchange rate drifted downwards ahead of the upcoming economic numbers from the UK and the US. It also retreated ahead of the crucial central bank decisions by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. It was trading at 1.2680, a few pips below last week;s high of 1.2775.

US consumer confidence data ahead

The GBP/USD pair will be in the spotlight this week as traders reflect on the crucial central bank decisions by the Fed and BoE. These decisions come at a time when the economic numbers from the two countries are sending mixed signals.

There are signs that the American economy is doing well. A report published on Friday revealed that the PCE figure dropped to 2.9% for the first time since 2022. This was an important report because the PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

Another report showed that the labor market is strong while the manufacturing PMI jumped above 50 this month. This is a sign that the manufacturing sector is firing on all cylinders, helped by Joe Biden’s incentives.

Therefore, a combination of inflation that is above the 2.0% target and a strong economy means that the Fed will not cut rates in the next two meetings. Most analysts believe that the next rate cut will happen either in its May or June meetings.

The UK is a different story because the economy is slowing while inflation remains double the Bank of England target. Therefore, signs of future rate cuts could lead to higher inflation while more tightening could lead to a weak economy.

The next key GBP/USD pair will be the upcoming US consumer confidence, JOLTs job openings, and house price index (HPI). Economists expect the data to show that the house price index rose by 0.2% in November while consumer confidence jumped to 115.

GBP/USD technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair has moved sideways in the past few weeks. It has remained inside the key support and resistance points at 1.2596 and 1.2785 since December 15th. The pair has moved slightly below the 50-period moving average.

At the same time, it has retreated below the psychological point at 1.2700 while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have drifted downwards. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 1.2596, its lowest swing on January 17th.

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