Bullish View

• Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3100.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2885.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2885.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3050.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The GBP/USD exchange rate stabilized ahead of the important US consumer confidence data and the UK budget. It started the week at 1.2962, a few pips above last week’s low of 1.2910, its lowest level since August 16.

The GBP/USD pair will have a few catalysts this week. Rachel Reeves, the finance minister, will unveil her first budget, in which she will explain her strategy to plug in a £22 billion hole. One of the strategies will be to change how she calculates the country’s debt to include the government’s assets.

The budget will also likely have some tax hikes for individuals and businesses, including more infrastructure spending. This being the first Labor budget in years, there is a likelihood that the sterling, UK stocks and bonds will show some volatility.

The other important GBP/USD news will be the upcoming US consumer confidence report on Tuesday. Economists expect the report to show that confidence rose to 99.2 in October from last month’s 98.7. The US will also publish the latest house price index (HPI) data on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, PCE data on Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

These numbers will provide more information about the US economy and provide more hints on what the Federal Reserve will do in the next few meetings. If the jobs numbers are strong, it means that the Fed may not even cut rates in its November meeting.

The GBP/USD exchange pair also reacted to Israel’s response to Iran’s missiles a few weeks ago. This response was more measured than expected, while Iran’s Ayatollah hinted that its retaliation would not be all that severe.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD exchange rate peaked at 1.3431 in September, and then suffered a harsh reversal, bottoming at 1.2900 last week. Its lowest point last week also coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. It has also dropped below the key support level at 1.3000, its lowest swing on September 11.

The pair has also slipped below the 50-day Weighted Moving Average (WMA), meaning that bears are in control. Also, it has moved below the Ichimoku cloud indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have pointed downwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back as geopolitical risks ease. If this happens, the pair will likely rise and retest the important resistance point at 1.3102, the 23.6% retracement point.

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