• As trading begins this week, there will be a US holiday that will weaken investor sentiment and market liquidity, and accordingly, today the price of the British pound against the US dollar GBP/USD is expected to move in its current range on the threshold of support 1.3100, down amid profit-taking sales from the resistance level 1.3265 last week, the highest for the currency pair in more than two years. 

(Click on image to enlarge) 

On the stock trading platforms front… British stocks record a second month of gains. According to trading platforms, there was little change in the FTSE 100 index of British stocks on Friday, but it achieved a second consecutive monthly gain and a third consecutive weekly advance. Real estate investment trusts and stocks led the sector’s gains on Friday, rising by 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. The oil and gas index fell by 1.1% due to concerns about demand and increased supply from OPEC+, while precious metals mining stocks also fell by 1.1% due to lower gold prices amid a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields. 

Anglo American, down 1.3%, signed deals with Chinese companies Sinochem Fertilizer and Pfeng AMB to expand its polyhalite fertilizer market in China, but slowed the development of its mine in northern England. 

According to reliable trading platforms, the pound faced technical resistance ahead of the last trading day in August. However, a potential test of the 2024 highs appears imminent in September. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in September, with markets expecting the next rate cut in November. 

In general, the movement of the British pound will depend on the tone of global stock markets, as the pound is very sensitive to public sentiment and tends to fall when markets suffer a setback. The US jobs report this week will be important. In contrast, the data calendar this week in the UK and the eurozone is relatively light and we do not see any market-moving events, which may ensure some remaining support for the pound, which is likely to trade on technical considerations. 

On another note, despite the prospect of an investor-unfriendly tax hike in October, business confidence in the UK remains at a nine-year high. This is according to the monthly Lloyds Business Index, which revealed confidence remained unchanged at 50% in August, matching its highest level since late 2015. The report said business optimism about the economy rose to its highest level in almost three years while trading prospects for the next 12 months remained strong despite a slight dip. 

Employment expectations also remained strong, albeit with a slight dip in the latest reading. Firms’ willingness to hire remained resilient despite a slight dip this month. 53%, the same as last month, expect to increase their headcount in the next 12 months, while 16% (up from 14%) expect to cut staff. In a possible warning sign for the Bank of England, the survey revealed that wage expectations have risen compared to last month, with the proportion of firms expecting average wage growth of at least 3% rising to 34% (up from 30%). The Bank of England is closely monitoring wage trends to determine whether inflation will surprise higher in the coming months. 

Technical forecasts for the GPB/USD pair today: 

Based on the performance on the daily chart attached, the GBP/USD price is at the beginning of forming a reverse downward channel and the formation may strengthen if prices move towards the support levels of 1.3070, 1.2980 and 1.2900 respectively. On the other hand, and for the same time frame, the resistance of 1.3200 will remain the most important to confirm the strength of the bulls’ control. In general, we still prefer to sell the GBP/USD from every upward level. Today’s performance may be limited until the financial markets and investors react to the announcement of the US jobs numbers at the end of the week, which will determine the fate of the US interest rate decision for this month. 

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