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According to CME Fedwatch, the odds of a December rate cut fell to 51.9 percent today from 62.9 percent yesterday and 95.5 percent a month ago.

This is not on any economic news that I can see. Rather it’s attributed to a statement by Sue Collins, a voting member on the FOMC.

“Absent evidence of a notable labor market deterioration, I would be hesitant to ease policy further, especially given the limited information on inflation due to the government shutdown,” Collins said in prepared remarks on Wednesday.

That seems a bit peculiar because the labor market is undoubtedly soft. What the Fed will not know by the December 10 meeting is what the inflation picture looks like.

Due to the government shutdown, the BLS did not collect CPI (inflation) data. It will have most of the jobs data other than the Household survey that determines the unemployment rate.

The establishment survey is automated so the BLS will be able to produce its most-watched (but very questionable) establishment report on the number of jobs. The Fed will also have claims data gathered by the states.

The CPI and the unemployment claims reports were due today. The former is likely to be cancelled. The claims data should be out shortly.

Economic Data Releases

For a table of expected economic releases, please see The Great Federal Re-Opening of 2025, When Will We Have Reports?

The CPI report for October may be cancelled. Here’s an expected schedule.

For discussion of the labor market, please see Revelio’s Realistic Assessment of the US Labor Market and Jobs – Sinking Fast

Kudos to Revelio for providing an excellent set of jobs-related data.

Meanwhile, the market is not pleased with the change in the odds. The DOW is down 1.65 percent, the Nasdaq is down 2.29 percent, and the S&P 500 is down 1.65 percent.

But look on the bright side. Cisco hit its first new high in 25 years today.

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