Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

Please consider the FOMC Statement, October 29, 2025.

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Two Dissents

• Voting for the monetary policy action: Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller.
• Voting against this action: Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting
• Voting against this action: Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

The lack of data from the shutdown will come into play, but September was mostly settled.

The BLS managed to get out the CPI data for September in time for this meeting (and the Social Security COLA) after Trump recalled BLS workers.

Flying Blind

Importantly, jobs data was not reported for September, but the data was at least collected.

I believe the shutdown will not last through November.

However, Data for October was not collected. That’s when the Fed will truly be flying blind.

So perhaps it’s just as well there is no November meeting this month.

The October Press Conference

Alternatively, you can watch the press conference here: FOMC Press Conference that link.

Key Powell Comments

• “Layoffs remain low.”
• “In the near term, inflation risks remain to the upside, labor to the downside.”
• “Policy is not on a preset course. A December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion.”
• “Goods prices increasing due to tariffs. Services other than housing moving sideways. Housing services inflation coming down. The base case is tariff inflation will be one time.”

Related Posts

October 10, 2025: Trump Recalls BLS Workers to Produce CPI Report Because SS Payments Need It

Oops, please come back.

October 24, 2025: Market Giddy Over Tame CPI for September, But Was It Really Tame?

Tame September CPI? How Tame?

I side with the dissent of Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

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