Factory orders from Census Department, chart by Mish

Please consider the Monthly Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders from the Census Department

• New orders for manufactured goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $536.4 billion.
• Shipments, also down three of the last four months, decreased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $542.8 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent January increase. 
• Unfilled orders, down following twenty-nine consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,155.6 billion. 
• The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.10, up from 6.09 in January.
•  Inventories, down two consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.1 percent to $806.3 billion. 

Key Items 

• New Orders: -0.7%, January revised from -1.6% to -2.1%
• Durable Goods: -1.0%
• Motor Vehicles and Parts: -0.8%
• Nondurable Goods: -0.4%
• Excluding Defense: -0.5%
• Excluding Transportation: -0.3%
• Transportation: -2.8%

Aircraft orders are huge, volatile, and have long lead times. It was a 15.8% jump in transportation that fueled the December surge. 

In January, transportation orders fell 14.0%. Ignoring the spike and decline, the trends tell the story of a stairstep weakening economy.

Unexpected Weakness and Negative Revisions

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for -0.4 percent. The report was -0.7 percent with a negative revision from -1.6 percent to -2.1 percent. 

Today's report is the monthly full report. Economists took the advance report in consideration for their estimate so these are big revisions. 

Real Income Was Negative in 2022 Q4, Big Negative Revisions to GDP

(Click on image to enlarge)

On March 31. I noted Real Income Was Negative in 2022 Q4, Big Negative Revisions to GDP

Don't discount the possibility that a recession started in 2022 Q4. That's the message from the BEA's revised GDP numbers.

As I have commented many times, heading into recessions the revisions will tend to be heavily negative. Coming out of recessions, revisions tend to be positive.

Baseline GDPNow Forecast Drops 50 Percent Since March 23, But Final Sales Still Strong

Yesterday I noted Baseline GDPNow Forecast Drops 50 Percent Since March 23, But Final Sales Still Strong

Falling Fast

In case you missed it, Money Supply Is Headed for 6th Month of Contraction

We have not seen money supply declines like this since the Great Depression.

The contrarian position isn't that a recession will come later, but rather that it's already started.

Well, that's OK. President Biden and all the economic cheerleaders say the economy is strong. 

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