Facebook Results Underwhelm, Forward Guidance Causes Concern

Despite beating the Street on both the top and bottom-line, Facebook (FB) stock still fell 9% in the after hours, and is down nearly 6% today. This is just further proof that the markets were looking for more from the company, with the Estimize consensus suggesting EPS should have been $0.02 higher at $0.45. Adding fuel to the fire were comments on the subsequent earnings conference call. Chief Financial Officer, David Wehner, cautioned that spending would be ramping up by 50 - 70% in 2015 on a non-GAAP basis, causing investors to fear Facebook might become the next Amazon, a company which has a seen a deep decline due to large, failed investments. Facebook also warned Q4 revenues would show a year-over-year increase of 40 - 47%, a slower pace than they have historically grown, and much lower than the 59% increase we saw in the Q3 results. However, the company made the same claims regarding weaker revenues in Q3, but were able to beat top-line expectations, and post YoY growth that was roughly in-line with Q2 results.

After the bell we get results from 15 more S&P 500 companies, including Kraft Foods, Visa and insurers Metlife and Allstate.

How Are We Doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter stand at 10.8%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 4.4% growth. All 10 sectors are anticipated to post positive YoY growth on both the earnings and revenue front.

Leaders

Earnings:

Health Care (13.3%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (45.1%)

Consumer Discretionary (13.1%). Notable industry: Internet Retail (20.4%)

Materials (13.0%). Notable industry: Metals & Mining (15.1%).

Revenues:

Health Care (10.7%). Notable industry: Biotech (38.9%).

Information Technology (7.3%). Notable industry: Software (15.7%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Utilities (4.2%). Notable industry: Electric Utilities (3.0%).

Telecommunication Services (0.9%): All five companies are within Diversified Telecom Services. Only Verizon posted y­o­y growth.

Revenues:

Energy (0.1%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­-0.7%).

Materials (2.7%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-13.6%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: 280 companies have reported thus far, 54% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 35% have missed and 11% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 72% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 21% have missed and 8% have met.

Revenue: 51% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 49% have missed, and 0% have met. For revenues, 59% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 41% have missed.

 

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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Michele Grant 10 years ago Member's comment

The author hit the nail on the head with this article. Leigh, where do you think Facebook will close out the year?

Terrence Howard 10 years ago Member's comment

Good read. So what's your price target before it's worth buying?