Facebook Gains Over Past Year Are Justified Through Revenues

Facebook (FB) reported first quarter earnings after the market closed on Wednesday May 5th, and on the surface the results were great with the company reporting earnings of $1.04 per share (beating estimates by $0.18) on revenue of $8B (beating estimates by $200M). The stock moved lower after it reported earnings, moving by 0.9%. Before I begin to parse through an income statement, balance sheet, or cash flow statement I like to check out how the segment revenues did and see if there was anything glaring. Below is a table on how the company did during the quarter compared to last year.

Segment Revenues (in millions)

Mar-16

Mar-17

Y/Y

Advertising

$5,201

$7,857

51.1%

Payments and other fees

$181

$175

-3.3%

Total Revenues

$5,382

$8,032

49.2%

Overall revenues were higher from this time last year by 49.2% on the overall increase of the advertising revenues which constitute roughly 97.8% of their revenue streams. In reality all the other revenue streams for this company don't matter because of how big of a percentage the advertising segment commands.

The outstanding news is that advertising revenues increased by 51.1% overall from last year to a total of $7.9B. This was all due in part to the more than five million businesses which are currently advertising with Facebook with more than a million of those business actually in emerging markets. The way that Facebook hooks these businesses is by allowing them to utilize the Pages platform to generate the ads and they continue to use it because it is very user friendly. The rest of the world and Asia Pacific showed the strongest advertising growth with 66% and 60% increases, respectively, which shows the strong advertising demand of the emerging markets. Meanwhile North America and Europe grew at a paltry 47% each.

While the stock did not move much on the back of the earnings announcement it has moved quite a bit over the past year. While revenues grew 49.2% the stock price itself moved 25.7% higher in the same time. Because of the increase in revenues I believe the increase in the stock price is definitely justified from this time last year.

I actually initiated my position in Facebook in late November and have been pretty happy with the purchase thus far. I will only be purchasing shares if they are below $130 because I believe that is where Facebook offers additional value. I've selected $130 because it is midway point of the 52-week range.

I swapped out of Priceline (PCLN) for Facebook during the 2016 fourth-quarter portfolio change-out because I ended up turning a profit in the name (32.7% or 33% annualized) and wanted to lock in those gains. Since the swap, Facebook has been on par with Priceline. For now, here is a chart to compare how Facebook and Priceline have done against each other and the S&P 500 since I swapped the names.

Source: Google Finance

When it is all said and done, it matters what the stock has done in an investor's portfolio. For me, Facebook is one of my larger positions and has been doing well as I'm up 23.6% on the name while the position occupies roughly 10.5% of my portfolio. I will make purchases in the stock only if it is below $121 because that is my cost basis.

I am up 17.6% since the inception of my portfolio, while the S&P 500 is up 15.4%. For 2017 my portfolio is up 7.1% while the market is up 7.2%. Below is a quick glance of my portfolio and how each position therein is performing. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to your comments.

Company

Ticker

% change incl. DIV

% of Portfolio

Facebook, Inc.

FB

23.6%

10.5%

Wyndham Worldwide Corporation

(WYN)

14.6%

4.2%

AbbVie Inc.

(ABBV)

14.4%

4.2%

3M Company

(MMM)

6.5%

3.9%

PulteGroup, Inc.

(PHM)

1.6%

3.7%

SEI Investments Company

(SEIC)

1.2%

7.4%

General Electric Company

(GE)

-3.3%

9.5%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

(ORLY)

-5.1%

5.8%

Valero Energy Corporation

(VLO)

-5.2%

3.4%

Silver Wheaton Corp.

(SLW)

-9.9%

9.9%

Gilead Sciences Inc.

(GILD)

-15.7%

19.1%

VFC MAY 19 2017 52.50 PUT

(VFC)

-88.2%

0.1%

Cash

$

 

18.5%

 

Disclaimer: This article is in no way a recommendation to buy or sell any stock mentioned. This article is meant to serve as a journal for myself as to the rationale of why I ...

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