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The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7% in May.

Six Key Highlights

• Existing-home declined 2.7%in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million.
• Sales are flat from one year ago.
• The median existing-home price for all housing types is up 2% from one year ago ($426,900) — a record high for the month of June, and the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• Total housing inventory is down 0.6% from May and increased 15.9% from June 2024 (1.32 million).
• Supply is 4.7 months at the current monthly sales pace, up from 4.6 months in May and 4.0 months in June 2024.
• Sales are down 38.0 percent from the cycle high of 6.34 million in January of 2022.

Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist Comments

“The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners’ wealth continues to grow—a benefit of homeownership. The average homeowner’s wealth has expanded by $140,900 over the past five years,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment.”

“High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners,” Dr. Yun continued.

“Expanding participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.”

These cheerleaders never discuss recession.

Factor in mortgage rates near 7 percent, a slowing economy, and massive tariff uncertainty. Housing is going nowhere until prices collapse and mortgage rates come down.

Yun cannot say that, so he sings the same happy tune for years.

The best thing the NAR has going for it is rising inventory that will eventually pressure prices.

But homes are light years away from being affordable and wage growth has stalled.

Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago

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Existing home sales are unchanged from a year ago.

Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Month Ago

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Existing-home sales fell 2.7 percent in June. In July of 2024 they rose 1.3 percent.

Looking ahead to year-over-year sales for July, the month-over-month number to beat is 1.3 percent.

If the July month-over-month number is better than 1.3 percent, the year-over-year number will improve, otherwise not.

Existing Home Sales Median Price

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The NAR does a horrendous job with seasonal adjustments. This data should be seasonally adjusted but doesn’t appear to be.

But even with data the NAR says is seasonally adjusted, there are obvious errors, just not of this magnitude.

For example, the lead chart shows a bounce in February sales in every year, typically the high of the year.

Related Posts

July 15: Real Hourly Earnings of Private Workers Decline 0.1 Percent in June

Inflation-adjusted wages fell in June. A decline in hours worked makes it worse.

July 19, 2025: Only Three of 12 Fed Regions Are Growing, Two Slightly

The Fed’s Beige Book shows a weakening economy

Economy at Stall Speed

I count three Fed regions up, and a fourth if you count Boston listed as “flat or up slightly”. Richmond was the standout. The Richmond area grew “moderately.”

New York and Philadelphia declined “modestly”

Add it all up and you have an economy at stall speed.

Are Home Prices Rising?

I do not believe they are because median price, not seasonally adjusted, is a terrible metric, especially in low volume situations.

For discussion, please see my June 24 report Home Prices Decline for the Second Month but It Doesn’t Even Register

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