Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed

Frozen Market

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% in November

"In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun."

Key Points 

• Existing-home sales fell for the tenth consecutive month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. Sales slipped 7.7% from October and 35.4% from the previous year.
• The median existing-home sales price rose to $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from one year ago.
• The inventory of unsold existing homes retreated for the fourth straight month to 1.14 million at the end of November, or the equivalent of 3.3 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace.

• Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.14 million units, which was down 6.6% from October, but up 2.7% from one year ago (1.11 million). 

• Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, which was identical to October, but up from 2.1 months in November 2021.

• The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. 

• This marks 129 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

• All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in November – identical to October and up from 24% in November 2021.

• Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 14% of homes in November, down from 16% in October and 15% in November 2021.

Existing Home Sales Supply

Supply Comments 

• Supply has been advancing slowly since July.
• Owners are holding out for prices they have no hope of getting and have stopped listing. 
• Buyers have moved to the sidelines. 

Existing Home Sales Since 1969

Existing-home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics

Existing-Home Sales Long-Term Comments 

• Sales have fallen to a level first seen in the late 1970s
• Sales are just above the Covid pandemic panic low and somewhat above the housing crash lows. 

Existing-Home Sales Month-Over-Month

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed

Track Record

• It's been a perfect record since January, the last time to buy before mortgage rates soared.
• After mild declines in August and September transactions resumed their crash in October and November.
• Sales are down 35.4 percent from a year ago and 37 percent since January. 

NAHB Housing Sentiment and Present Conditions Crash to Covid-19 Lows

On December 19, I commented NAHB Housing Sentiment and Present Conditions Crash to Covid-19 Lows

In an amazing streak, NAHB sentiment came in lower than the Econoday economists' forecast 12 out of 12 months this year.

Housing Starts Flat in November but Permits Unexpectedly Collapse by 11 Percent

Housing starts data from Census Department, chart by Mish

Note that Housing Starts Flat in November but Permits Unexpectedly Collapse by 11 Percent

There was a stunning 29 percent collapse in single family housing starts from a year ago. Click on the above link for more details. 

We have never seen such numbers outside a recession. 

Well, that's OK nearly everyone tells me jobs are going gangbusters. Are they?

The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

For discussion, please see The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

The discussion was a hotbed of discussion on Twitter just as was the discrepancy between GDP and GDI which should match. 

The BEA hugely revised income lower and discrepancies in general resolve lower headed into or in recessions.

Income lower and jobs up? The economy is fine but housing, industrial production, and retail sales struggling. 

OK believe what you want. 

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Housing Starts Flat In November But Permits Unexpectedly Collapse By 11 Percent