Change in Employment, overall vs government, data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Except where noted, charts in this post are from the BLS Household Survey. The unemployment rate is from the same survey.

It’s important to not mix the Establishment Survey (Nonfarm Payrolls) with the Household Survey.

Year-over-year comparisons are best done with Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) numbers. For month-over month comparisons, it is mandatory to use Seasonally Adjusted numbers.

Change in Employment Excluding Government

I created the above chart by subtracting the year-over-year change in government employment from the year-over-year change in employment.

For nine straight months, employment excluding government has been negative.

For all of 2023 except December, year-over-year employment excluding government was +1.8 million on the low end and +2.8 million on the high end.

January of 2-24 was +330,000 followed by 9 straight months of negative numbers.

Non-Ag Employment Excluding Government

Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.

Government Employment

The above chart shows why you should not make month-over-month comparisons with unadjusted numbers.

Change in Employment Level

Seasonally-adjusted employment in September rose by a 430,000 with government up 785,000.

Many people screamed of manipulation. Others screamed of bad seasonal adjustments.

But look closely at the last two charts comparing the NSA numbers to the SA results.

Three-Month-Comparison

• For August-thru-September 2023, Government SA was up a total of 473,000.
• For August-thru-September 2024, Government SA was up a total of 506,000.

In October, we set a new high in NSA numbers and SA numbers.

There’s not that much of a seasonal-adjustment beef here, but there sure should be concern over all the government jobs.

Establishment Survey Change in Government Jobs

Establishment Survey (nonfarm payrolls) from the BLS, chart by Mish

The establishment survey also shows huge jumps in government jobs.

Look closely, it’s almost entirely at the state and local level. The driver for this growth is the surge in immigration.

BLS Nonfarm Revisions

If I am not mistaken, I believe we can spot a general trend here.

Job Openings Drop by 418,000 as Quits Show Major Weakness

On November 1, I commented Job Openings Drop by 418,000 as Quits Show Major Weakness

Job openings and quits, not impacted by hurricanes, put an additional spotlight on the poor October jobs report.

Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000

Also on November 1, I noted Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000

Blame hurricanes if you like, but the impact is debatable. Only Hurricane Milton was in the reference period.

The amusing thing about these numbers is the number of screams I hear every month about purposeful manipulation of the numbers by the BLS to make jobs seem better than they are.

Trust me on this, the BLS would not add 785,000 government jobs in one month to make things look better.

Now, please review the first three charts and the charts in my nonfarm jobs report (previous link) above.

If you believe the economy is humming and jobs are strong, then please think again.

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