EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast 26th – 30th September

The EUR/USD has fallen to lows not traded since 2002 and the currency pair likely has an important week of trading ahead.

The EUR/USD will open around a price of nearly 0.96865 this week, barring a huge gap upon the start of its trading.  The EUR/USD stumbled into the weekend having fallen significantly during a chaotic few days of trading, after the U.S Federal Reserve essentially said its outlook contains additional interest rate hikes in the coming months.

The EUR/USD is trading at lows not seen since 2002. Technical traders’ who are looking for upside reversals based on their ‘historic’ perception the EUR must always be stronger than the USD, are likely having their fortitude tested and it may be proving an expensive battle. The EUR/USD has not only fallen through parity, but it showed little inclination to actually trade above the 1.00000 last week, reaching a high of about 1.00500 on the 20th of September, this before the strong  lower move occurred.

The European Central Bank will get Attention in the Coming Days regarding the EUR/USD

While the GBP/USD has screamed to historic lows, the European Central Bank has been able to hide somewhat quietly in the shadows as the EUR/USD has suffered a decline in value. This because media circles are focusing on the historic loss of value in the GBP for the moment and the EUR/USD has not stolen the headlines, but that can change quickly.

The European Central Bank has a rather solid history of reacting late to turmoil in the financial markets. The lack of a solid political structure in the ECB is problematic. The ECB may actually want a weaker EUR for the moment, this to entice purchasing of European products from American consumers who have a stronger USD.  However, this could be a dangerous game and costly for the EUR/USD if the ECB is not careful.

  • The main lending rate of the ECB is only 1.25% and their next scheduled central bank meeting is only in the last week of October. Inflation via ECB statistics in Europe is near nine percent.
  • Speculators should monitor the ECB this week to see if there are signs of a sudden attempt to protect the value of the EUR/USD via a sudden interest rate hike.

Investors like Clarity and Punish the Unknown: the EUR/USD remains in the Shadows

The EUR/USD is trading at lows and technical traders must ask just how long the bearish trend will continue.  The problem for the EUR/USD is that while other major central banks acted last week after the U.S Fed’s admission more interest rate hikes will be delivered, the ECB essentially sat on its hands.

Perhaps the ECB is showing it is the adult in the room. The European Central Bank may be acting in a prudent manner. However, if the EUR/USD stumbles lower significantly and suddenly begins testing the 0.95000 ratio, there may be a reason for the European Central Bank to show it is paying attention and raise its interest rate. The ECB does not have to wait for its scheduled meeting on the 27th of October to raise rates, even though it might.

Traders of the EUR/USD should be careful and monitor news flow in the coming days. Taking into consideration the amount of hikes carried forth late last week by other central banks, the ECB should be watched for the potential of stepping into the spotlight. Traders who are tempted to buy the EUR/USD looking for short term reversals based on this potential need to be extremely careful and remain conservative with their bets, because if it doesn’t happen – and there is a significant chance it may not – then the EUR/USD could stumble lower.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 0.94480 to 1.00510

Last week’s historic price action in Forex sent the EUR/USD to lows not seen in twenty years. Trading in the coming days could be extremely fast and speculators looking to wager with the EUR/USD should be very careful. If the EUR/USD falls below the 0.96600 level and begins to test the 0.96500 ratio, another move lower could ignite short selling which targets the 0.96000 to 0.95700 junctures.

The coming week of trading in the EUR/USD could prove to be expensive if speculators are wagering on the wrong side of the currency pair. Technically the EUR/USD appears to be oversold, but is the Forex pair fundamentally too low? Support levels will have to prove durable and global markets will have to shake off their nervousness and stabilize. If a trader is looking for upside action they should be willing to use targets that are not overly ambitious and use take profits.  Last week’s dynamic results could linger into this week very easily.

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD


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